As NATO spreads above the Arctic Circle, the US finds a new archipelago for its reenactment of the Peloponnesian War

(Originally published April 4 in “What in the World“) Russia and Ukraine have stepped up efforts to replenish their troop levels, with Ukraine launching a recruitment drive and Moscow enlarging its draft.

Having used Western weapons to weather Russia’s much-ballyhooed early spring offensive, Ukraine is preparing to unleash its new, used European tanks for an equally ballyhooed late-spring counteroffensive.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization must now contemplate a new front along Finland’s 1,300km border with Russia. Finland joins NATO this week after a long hazing by Turkey. Moscow has warned that, if NATO forces are deployed in Finland, it will boost its own forces along the border.

China must also now face a new front against the U.S. in the Pacific—the Philippines. As detailed in this space in late-February, Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. has broken ranks with Beijing and rekindled his father’s alliance with the United States. Yesterday, the Pentagon announced four new Philippine military bases that will play host to U.S. forces under the new-and-improved Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement between Manila and Washington. That brings to nine the total number of bases in the Philippines into which U.S. troops will be “rotated.”

Graham Allison, the Harvard government professor who coined the term “Thucydides Trap” to describe Washington’s bellicose reaction to any emerging threat to its hegemony, is again warning that the U.S. and China are on a slippery slope towards conflict.