Wagner’s aborted march on Moscow raises fears of Russian civil war, nuclear miscalculations over Ukraine and sharpens Washington’s focus on Beijing

(Originally published June 26 in “What in the World“) This weekend’s mutiny by Russia’s ruthless Wagner mercenary forces appears to weaken Putin’s political grip, not to mention Russia’s ability to withstand Ukraine’s counteroffensive.

Wagner is or was, after all, Russia’s most effective and best-supplied military force. Its mutiny raises the risk that Putin resorts to more desperate measures to avoid defeat in Ukraine and in Moscow. It’s also a reminder that as much as the West has been hoping for Putin’s downfall, it really isn’t prepared for who or what comes after him, particularly if he’s the authoritarian glue holding a fractious Russian nuclear power together. If Putin falls, Russia could descend into a violent civil war between heavily armed factions.

It has long been clear that Russia wouldn’t be defeated without Putin’s ouster. And that Putin sees defeat in Ukraine as an existential threat to Russia—and by extension to himself. The war has thus been one of attrition that Putin felt he could win, until depleted artillery turned his most zealous general, Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin, into a domestic rebel. Putin may be scary. But the prospect of Moscow falling to Prigozhin was even scarier. That may be why no Russian officials broke ranks to rebel alongside Prigozhin and why the mutiny may ultimately cement Putin’s political grip even if it weakens him in Ukraine.

Congress is gearing up for a big fight over defense spending—but only on how much it should exceed caps agreed on in last month’s 11th hour deal to raise the debt ceiling and avoid a U.S. default, and why. The Republican-led House Armed Services Committee is advancing a defense spending bill for 2024 that would circumvent the caps to buy weapons to defeat China. The Democrat-led Senate Armed Services Committee is advancing a version of the same bill that would do the same, but to defeat Russia in Ukraine.

After asking Washington to snuggle more tightly under the nuclear umbrella to ward off potential rockets from its hot-headed northern neighbor, Seoul has finally given full approval to switch on its U.S.-supplied Thaad anti-missile system.

The U.S. installed the Thaad, or Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense, system on a South Korean golf course six years ago. The move drew vituperative protests from South Korea’s neighbor China, and from the Thaad’s new neighbors around the links, who worried its radio waves might turn their brains to bulgogi. An environmental assessment was ordered that seemed to drag on as long as Beijing could rally its consumers to boycott K-everything.

This week, the review concluded. Area residents have been assured the only thing the Thaad will barbecue is incoming missiles.