War in Gaza risks driving more of the Middle East into a Moscow-Beijing axis

(Originally published Oct. 10 in “What in the World“) Israel stepped up airstrikes in Gaza, targeting a residential area in central Gaza City and the city of Rafah, and ordered a siege of the territory aimed at cutting off its food, water, fuel and power.

The concern now is that the war might widen from a fight against Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza to one with Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and perhaps even directly with Iran, a Russian ally. Iran has been supplying military drones to Moscow for use in Ukraine. Israeli forces shelled southern Lebanon Monday after a brief raid into Israel by a third Iran-backed group, Islamic Jihad.

The conflict could also derail recent moves to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been deepening ties with Moscow and Beijing, so Riyadh’s need to side with Palestine in any conflict with Israel could nudge it closer to Moscow and Beijing and away from Washington. How comfortably perennial rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran would coexist in a Beijing-Moscow axis is another question.

But oil prices jumped 4% Monday as markets reacted to the war’s wider implications. Surging rail traffic on North Korea’s Russian border has sparked speculation that Pyongyang has begun funneling ammunition to Russia following last month’s visit there by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.