Houthi attacks cataylze détente between Europe-Saudi Arabia, China-US
(Originally published Jan. 26 in “What in the World“) Whenever a door closes, a window opens. Sometimes more than one.
The West now finds itself fighting Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, a group Saudi Arabia was fending off using Western weaponry for years. After complaining that the Saudis were also killing Yemeni civilians, the West tried to trim its arm shipments to Riyadh. Now, the West is having to eat humble pie and is resuming arms sales to the Saudis.
Germany lifted its veto on selling Eurofighter Typhoons to Saudi Arabia earlier this month after the Houthis began launching missiles at Israel. That has cleared the way for the Saudis to buy 48 new Typhoons instead of resorting to French Rafales. Eurofighters are made jointly by Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom.
The Houthis may need to check their six, though. China has reportedly acceded to U.S. requests that it urge Tehran to pressure the Houthis to stop menacing Red Sea shipping. The Houthis have so far seemed to avoid attacking China’s ships, but the threat remains, and the attacks have sent global freight costs soaring. U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan is reportedly in Bangkok to discuss the Red Sea situation with China’s foreign minister Wang Yi.
Europe and the U.K. may now be the unlikely vanguard for defending the West against Russia and its ally Iran. In a strange role-reversal, London has recently found itself lobbying American conservatives to hold up their side in defending the free world, as conservatives hold up military aid to Ukraine to win various political concessions from Democrats, the latest being tougher restrictions on immigration. And, perhaps realizing that its troops there only serve as bait to Iran’s proxy militias, the Pentagon is even negotiating for a withdrawal of the remaining U.S. forces in Iraq. For its part, Baghdad seems to be sick and tired of serving as a battleground for Americans and Iranians. It condemned both Iran’s missile attacks against alleged Israeli spy operations outside Erbil and Tuesday’s air strikes by US forces against Iran-backed militias.
While clearly unintentional, Washington’s growing ambivalence on European defense may finally force the other members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to meet their defense-spending obligations. NATO members are supposed to devote 2% of GDP to national defense. Only seven of NATO’s 31 members do. Germany, in the latest loosening of its military purse strings, plans to buy 274 Brimstone air-to-surface missiles for its own Eurofighter Typhoons, which now arm Britain’s Tornado fighters.
NATO may also soon get its 32nd member, Sweden. After Turkey’s Parliament ratified Sweden’s membership, U.S. President Joe Biden has urged the U.S. Congress to approve the agreed $20 billion sale of new F-16s to Turkey. Along with forcing Stockholm to take a tougher line against Kurdish separatists, Ankara also demanded Washington agree to the F-16 sale as part of the price of allowing Sweden to join NATO. Sweden is now lobbying the last holdout, Hungary, to let it in. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has voiced support for Sweden’s membership, but has still invited Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson to Budapest to discuss it.