Allies urge Israel not to take the bait, but a strike against Iran seems inevitable

(Originally published April 18 in “What in the World“) After weathering a blistering barrage of hundreds of Iranian drones and missiles over the weekend without major damage or injuries, Israel is now weighing what kind of retaliation it will launch.

In so doing, Israel will perpetuate the cycle of expanding retribution that has seen the war in Israel expand from a brutal attack by Hamas against Israel last October to Israel’s invasion of Gaza, Iranian-backed militia attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria, U.S. attacks on Iranian-backed militias, Iranian attacks against Islamic State militants in Iraq and Pakistan, Iranian-backed Houthi rebel attacks from Yemen against commercial vessels in the Red Sea, a Western naval alliance attacking Houthi rebels in Yemen, Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants launching missiles from southern Lebanon against Israel, Israel launching air strikes against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, and Israel launching strikes against Iranian commanders in Lebanon and Syria.

Both Iran and Israel’s western allies would prefer that Israel take the high road and do nothing. Both Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, and the United Kingdom’s Foreign Secretary David Cameron flew to Tel Aviv Wednesday to urge just that. But Israel is determined not to let Tehran get away with this and conclude that it can do it again. Tel Aviv apparently shelved its go-to plan for immediate retaliation after U.S. President Joe Biden placed a call urging restraint to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Among the options Israel is now studying:

• Strike an Iranian proxy target outside Iran.
• Destroy a symbolic target inside Iran.
• Cyberattack Iran’s infrastructure.
• Launch a wave of small and secret attacks and assassinations inside Iran.

Only one has the kind of eye-for-an-eye appeal Israel is looking for. So, expect something in Iran to blow up soon. Iran is already preparing by sending its navy to the Red Sea, where the Western alliance is already operating against Houthi rebels, to escort its own commercial ships. When Israel does launch its retaliatory strike, it will be interesting to see if Iran’s supposed allies, China and Russia, come to its defense the way the U.S., the U.K. and other Western allies helped defend Israel.

If they do, the pieces are already in place for World War III. In Asia, the U.S. and the Philippines are expanding their annual joint military exercises beyond Philippine territorial waters for the first time in order to better simulate re-taking islands after an imaginary Chinese invasion. Beijing called the exercises, which begin later this week, provocative and said they would only create further instability in the region.

The exercises, in which France will also participate, come amid rising disputes over atolls in the South China Sea between China and the Philippines and after U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida earlier this month announced a new and closer military alliance aimed at countering China.