As Iran’s proxies revive attacks, China and Russia nudge the West

(Originally published May 3 in “What in the World“) Is Russia softening up Europe for a summer blitz of the Baltics?

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization has warned of an increasing number “hybrid” attacks: cyberattacks, electronic interference, GPS jamming, sabotage, and disinformation campaigns. Estonia, in particular, has been weathering stepped up cyberattacks and GPS jamming that has forced airlines to cancel flights there.

The No. 2 at Ukraine’s military intelligence agency predicts Russia will launch a summer offensive to “liberate” the eastern, Russia-speaking Donbas region. Both sides are slowly running out of weapons, but Maj.-Gen. Vadym Skibitsky says Ukraine is running out faster and that new American weapons likely won’t arrive in time. Russia doesn’t have enough men to take a big city, he says, but at this point in the stalemate the goal appears mainly to be to scrounge as much territory as possible before both sides are driven to seek an armistice that divides Ukraine. Once Putin is successful, Skibitsky warns, Europe may find itself next on Putin’s shopping list. Russia could take the Baltics in seven days, he says, faster than the ten days it would take NATO to respond.

Even as protesters on U.S. college campuses and elsewhere register their outrage at the plight of Gazans amid Israel’s war against Hamas, Hamas and Iran’s other proxies in the region continue to make Israel’s case that the war must go on. The Iran-backed group on Monday fired roughly 20 rockets into Israel from Lebanon, where its leaders operate in exile. There were no injuries, and most were knocked down by Israeli air defenses. And on Thursday, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed to have launched cruise missiles against Tel Aviv.

China’s navy, meanwhile, has been conducting combat landing drills that Taiwan says took its forces within 76km of the island’s northern city of Keelung, thereby crossing the unofficial “median line” that separates mainland China from the self-ruled “renegade province. China has been conducting an increasing number of such exercises closer to Taiwan since Washington stepped up efforts under former President Donald Trump to beef up its defenses, but Taiwan officials say the latest drills added new elements such as nighttime combat patrols, landing ships, and minesweepers.

China’s navy also appears to be settling into its new base near the Cambodian coastal city of Sihanoukville. Using satellite imagery, the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative has determined that two People’s Liberation Army Navy corvettes have taken up seemingly permanent residence at a new pier at a naval base outside Ream. Work is also continuing to expand the base, including the addition of a wharf and drydock that would enable the base to accommodate larger vessels.