Israel vows retaliation for Iran’s retaliatory missile attacks…
(Originally published Oct. 2 in “What in the World“) U.S. and Israeli forces intercepted many, but not all, of the roughly 180 missiles fired Tuesday by Iran against Israel.
Iran’s attack, which took place as Israel continued airstrikes in Gaza, was the second of its kind and had long been expected. Iran launched a massive wave of drones and missiles toward Israel in April. It threatened direct retaliation again after Israel in July assassinated the political leader of Hamas while he was visiting Tehran. Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon Tuesday apparently was the last straw for Tehran’s hawks. The New York Times repeated its almost comical refrain that this risks turning into “all-out war.”
The latest attacks rattled investors, sending key U.S. stock indexes lower, while gold and U.S. Treasuries rallied. The S&P500 fell 0.9%, gold rose almost as much, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond dropped to 3.742%, from 3.798%.
After Iran’s April attack, Israel was talked out of retaliating by Western diplomats, including Germany, the U.K., and the U.S. Israel confined its response to a strike against an Iranian air-defense installation.
This time, however, the U.S. responded to Israel’s bombardment of Hezbollah by giving Tel Aviv the green light for its invasion and dispatching additional forces to the region, including a second aircraft carrier, the USS Harry Truman, to the eastern Mediterranean. Both U.S. and British naval forces in the region helped Israel knock down the Iranian barrage. Two U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers USS Bulkely and USS Cole that are already in the area fired a dozen interceptors against Iran’s incoming missiles.
Both Israel and the U.S. have now vowed to retaliate against Iran. And while Washington may be implying more sanctions, analysts say Israel may have less reason not to respond militarily. Turns out that the biggest factor holding Israel back in April wasn’t the solemn entreaties of Western diplomats, but the fear that attacking Iran would unleash a full-scale Hezbollah assault from southern Lebanon. Now that Israeli forces are in southern Lebanon and have eliminated roughly half of its weapons arsenal, that threat has been at least halved. With Hezbollah already requesting a refill from Iran and Lebanon turning back Iranian resupply flights, Israel’s next logical target has to be Hezbollah’s supplier, the country that just bombarded it.
In so doing, Israel will perpetuate the cycle of expanding retribution that has seen the war that began a year ago next week expand from the brutal attack Oct. 7 by Hamas against Israel to Israel’s invasion of Gaza, Iranian-backed militia attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria, U.S. attacks on Iranian-backed militias, Iranian attacks against Islamic State militants in Iraq and Pakistan, Iranian-backed Houthi rebel attacks from Yemen against commercial vessels in the Red Sea, a Western naval alliance attacking Houthi rebels in Yemen, Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants launching missiles from southern Lebanon against Israel, Israel launching strikes against Iranian and Hezbollah commanders in Lebanon and Syria, air strikes against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, a full-scale ground assault, and now Iran’s bombardment of Israel.
If you’ve read the Middle East’s user manuals, however, you’ll already know that retribution is standard operating procedure in these parts. One possibility now is a massive Israeli attack on Iran’s major military bases.