Covid isn’t ageist—kids are a vital part of why we’re failing to stem the spread of new strains
(Originally published Sept. 6 in “What in the World“) Why people think kids should be forced to gather when adults are required to social distance is a mystery (unless you have kids at home). Now there are parts of the U.S. feeding the pandemic with their youngest citizens. Unfortunately, we aren’t yet able to vaccinate small children—if there’s a long-term danger from vaccines, young children are the most likely to live long enough to find out the hard way. Fortunately, we also know kids have stronger immune systems and so face a lower risk of serious illness or death from Covid-19. But they can also carry the virus to their older relatives even as they remain healthy and completely asymptomatic. So making them head back to classrooms during a pandemic seems foolish if your goal is to limit the spread of the virus.
People are understandably tired of fighting Covid-19, but Covid-19 isn’t showing any sign yet of throwing in the towel. The rapid spread of delta is having a powerful dampening effect on U.S. job creation. So it’s particularly important that we redouble efforts to block transmission of the virus now, even as the surge in global delta cases recedes. That’s because there’s already a new strain on the march, which the World Health Organization has designated “Mu.” It’s still not clear if Mu is as infectious as Delta, or how effective vaccines are against it. But until we know, it would be wise not to let down our collective guard. Unfortunately, it may already be too late, as Mu has already spread from Colombia to at least 39 countries.
While the U.S. has the dubious honor of having supplied the virus with the most hosts so far, the epicenter of the pandemic has shifted to one of the countries that led the race to vaccinate its population, Israel. Israel is now running the world’s highest rate of new infections despite having inoculated roughly 60% of its residents. This is a reminder of just how well the delta strain is doing at evading vaccines designed for its predecessors and how fast the imperfect immunity that vaccines provide gainst delta fades over time. Nearly all of the new cases being found are delta.
The problem is that very few countries have yet achieved herd immunity, which because of delta’s higher infectiousness, is now estimated to require that at least 80% of a population be either vaccinated or survive infection by Covid-19. Here’s a full list of the countries that have achieved that: Belgium, Chile, Gibraltar, Iceland, Malta, Portugal, Qatar, San Marino, Seychelles, Spain, the UAE, and Uruguay.
Most of these have vaccinated roughly 70% of their residents; Covid did the rest. But if you look at what they’re now experiencing, it isn’t encouraging…
While they’re all seeing a gradual drop in cases, they still remain above the global average, suggesting vaccination isn’t helping much in stemming the spread of delta.
Where it has helped is in reducing the death toll delta has taken in those countries relative to the rest of the world…
Just so that trend is easier to appreciate, here’s the same chart with Uruguay, which suffered a massive fatality rate at the peak of its delta surge in June, and adds the United States, where only about 65% of the population has either had Covid or been vaccinated against it…
Only Spain still appears to be suffering a higher-than-average mortality rate, despite its previous surges and despite its vaccination uptake. And of these “herd” countries, only Chile and Uruguay have yet brought their infection rates low enough to justify reopening their borders to quarantine-free travel and lifting social distancing rules.
What this means is that vaccines will continue to be essential to lowering the impact of delta, mu and successive strains—and that means boosters. To truly stop the virus from continually creating new variants, however, would require a global lockdown, which we’ve proven we are incapable of doing. It’s worth doing, even if we manage to reduce the risk of dying from Covid, if for no other reason than, unlike the flu, Covid appears to have enduring effects, including kidney damage and a distorted sense of smell. But humanity’s inability to mount a collective action against infection is particularly evident in the U.S., where public figures continue to resist even basic mitigation measures like mask mandates. Even worse, regulators are now warning the White House that booster shots may not be approved for use as soon as hoped, and will probably only be available at first for people who received the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines.
So, expect another surge in infections in the U.S. in roughly late-October, early-November, which will then spread to the rest of the world over winter. Keep the kids at home.