With Biden’s blessing and Trump looming, Zelensky must take the war to the West

(Originally published Nov. 19 in “What in the World“) The most dangerous person in the world right now may not be Kim Jong Un, or Vladimir Putin, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Russia vowed to take a “tangible and appropriate” response to any strike against it by Ukraine using long-range, U.S. Atacms. U.S. President Joe Biden on Monday lifted his longstanding restriction on Ukraine using the missiles—and their European cruise-missile counterparts—to hit targets inside Russia. Pundits are now debating whether there are enough Atacms, or enough targets in range, to make any difference in the war, which just passed its 1,000th day.

But the Atacms may have already made a difference. Biden’s move has swept aside the last restraint on a cornered leader. Zelensky is armed to the teeth with Western tanks, F-16s, and mobile missile launchers, and now has just over two months before Donald Trump takes office, reverses Biden’s approval and, as Trump’s own son suggested, pulls the plug on Zelensky’s regular “allowance” of American munitions. Some have suggested that Zelensky is now more open to negotiations for a ceasefire along the current front lines that, while not officially ceding any lost territory to Russia, would leave Moscow with a land bridge to the strategically vital Crimea.

Rather than meekly submit to defeat, however, Zelensky’s smartest move may be to do to Europe and the U.S. what U.S officials say the Atacms will do to Russia: bring the war to their doorstep. Western officials say the Atacms will make clear to Russians they can’t wage war in Ukraine without paying a cost at home. Ensuring that the $59.5 billion in weapons he has received from Washington keeps flowing could depend on whether Zelensky can provoke Russia into widening the war to Europe and the U.S.

Ukrainian special-ops forces are already the leading suspects in the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines, and have conducted operations against Russian forces as far away as Syria and Sudan. Finland and Germany now suspect sabotage—they’re leaning towards Russia—in the severing of a 1,200km fiber-optic cable connecting them under the Baltic.

Biden is headed for the meeting of the Group of 20 nations in Rio de Janeiro to lobby for more international support for Ukraine. His message to Zelensky has already landed: help yourself.

Israeli airstrikes moved further into central Beirut Monday, coming close to its Parliament and foreign embassies.

Israel says the attacks were aimed at Iran-backed Hezbollah militants. Lebanon says 3,500 people there have been killed since September, when Israel launched its counterattack against Hezbollah’s missile attacks on northern Israel. More than 43,800 Palestinians in Gaza have been killed since it launched its counterattack there against Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel. Almost 1,300 Israelis have been killed in those attacks and the ensuing war.

While the United Kingdom in September suspended 30 licenses for arms exports to Israel on the grounds that the weapons might be used to violate human rights there, it exempted more than 330 weapons-related exports, including parts for F-35 fighter jets. Why? To maintain confidence in Britain’s role as a partner in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, according to government documents filed in a high court case.