The U.S. is throwing open its borders to vaccinated travelers. Why not? Few nations have a higher Covid infection rate than it does.

(Originally published Sept. 21 in “What in the World“) Congratulations: If you’re fully vaccinated you can now roll the dice and visit the U.S. with nothing more than a negative Covid test. This may be good news for Europeans hankering for a trip Stateside. Europe has gone from laggard to leader on vaccinations after becoming “awash” with Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine doses. It also removes a sticking point between Washington and its European counterparts, who’ve been frustrated by Washington’s refusal to reciprocate when Europe lifted restrictions on American visitors in time for summer vacation. It will probably do little to mollify Paris, still miffed over the U.S. wading in on its submarine deal with Australia.

It’s also probably bad news from the standpoint of ending the pandemic. While the global surge in Delta cases continues to ebb, deaths in the U.S. continue to rise, largely among the unvaccinated.

A Pandemic of the American…

With 675,000 now dead, as many Americans have died of Covid as died from the Spanish flu in the 1918 pandemic. Covid-19 continues to place such a strain on U.S. health services that it’s become difficult to get basic equipment needed to treat patients for other conditions.

The last thing the U.S. needs now is an influx of new carriers eager to wander beyond their community and potentially carrying new strains of the virus just as we head into the winter flu season. The benefits for Europe are dubious as well: even though cases are falling in the U.S., it remains one of the most heavily infected nations on the planet, meaning that vaccinated visitors from Europe face a greater risk of encountering the Delta strain and getting infected, or carrying home a new strain—about as desirable a souvenir as a Statue of Liberty glass snowball.

…Yearning to breathe free?

Restrictions on movement need to be tightened, not loosened, until global infection rates fall back to acceptable levels to minimize breakthrough infections and mutation events. We’re not there yet. Nevertheless, the U.S. and Europe are at the vanguard of a group of nations, along with the U.K., with high vaccination rates nonetheless choosing to ignore persistently high domestic infection rates to relax restrictions on movement in response to political pressure from a weary citizenry. So expect more Covid-related deaths and drama as the weather cools and the effectiveness of vaccines fades.

The debate over the medical benefits and ethics of booster shots continues, meanwhile. While the FDA has said yes to boosters for those over 65, it has agreed with the WHO and others that those below that age don’t yet need boosters. Time will tell, but if Israel’s experience is any guide, the need for boosters isn’t dependent on age, but rather how long ago you received the vaccine. Immunity fades over time, so those who were vaccinated first will be the first to need booster shots. The FDA may have thus found a face-saving way to agree to boosters without necessarily endorsing them and thereby riling those arguing for boosters to be instead donated to countries that haven’t yet managed to vaccinate even half their population. While booster shots haven’t really come at the expense of doses in the developing world, it now appears the U.S. booster drive is really a ploy to stockpile enough doses to ensure every American can get vaccinated before supplies are diverted to the developing world.

It will be interesting to see how this is all affected by the expanded demand for dosing children now that vaccine makers say their shots are safe for kids. Germany is already looking to dose its kinder—the gaping hole in any country’s efforts to achieve herd immunity.