Merck’s new treatment for Covid shows promise in preventing serious illness. Better still, don’t get infected.
(Originally published Oct. 4 in “What in the World“) Last week ended with the seemingly bombshell news that Merck has developed a breakthrough, anti-Covid pill. Thought the story actually broke Monday, it took all week for it to percolate through the minds of editors and investors, finally earning “above-the-fold” status by Friday and slamming shares of vaccine makers as investors concluded that a simple oral treatment might obviate the need for vaccinations, offering a viable alternative for those who can’t get them or just refuse to.
Over the weekend, this fallacy was laid to rest none other than Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical advisor to U.S. President Joe Biden. While Merck’s drug, molnupiravir, may prove successful in reducing hospitalizations, it isn’t a panacea that will replace vaccines. As Fauci summed up: “You heard the numbers. [The drug] decreased the risk … of hospitalizations and death by 50%. You know the way to decrease the risk by 100 percent? Don’t get infected in the first place.”https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/o3C8_fwDwVI?rel=0&autoplay=0&showinfo=0&enablejsapi=0
And, as the New York Times reported, even if Merck wins approval to start selling molnupiravir by the end of this year, it won’t be available in sufficient quantities to protect the unvaccinated from the present wave of infections by the Delta strain. Worse, because the pill doesn’t prevent infection, it won’t stop those infected from giving the virus a chance to mutate into a new strain that’s even more successful than the Delta strain at evading immunity.
That’s one reason European health authorities confirmed late last week what this column warned last week, that Sweden and other European countries are lowering their guard and reopening far too quickly: “So far, just over 62% of the total population of the European Union is fully vaccinated, and only three of its 27 member countries have fully inoculated more than 75% of their residents, according to the agency’s data.”
It’s no surprise that vaccine mandates in the United States appear to be driving vaccination rates upward. While the Delta surge contiues to ebb, it’s still killing Americans—more than 700,000 of whom have now died from Covid (of more than 4.8 million globally)—and racing through even highly vaccinated parts of the country like New England. Adding to the jostle for jabs, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last week urged pregnant women to get the jab as soon as possible.
Asian nations area also making late, but notable, progress towards coveted herd immunity status, in particular Japan, South Korea and Malaysia. But Africa remains woefully behind and will require a more dedicated global effort to help procure and administer vaccines.
Many European nations are joining the U.S. to jump ahead with programs to administer booster shots, including France, Germany, Ireland and Italy, before getting a green light from the European Medecines Agency. We’ll all need booster shots eventually because Covid is mutating, accelerating the rate at which vaccines lose their effectiveness. Add to this that Covid infects upper respiratory tissue, where immune system is weaker than in lower lungs, and it seems Covid jabs may become an annual ritual.
This realization has been siezed on, however, by advocates for an accelerated reopening of borders to international travel and lowering of social distancing restrictions, who say the prospect of annual immunizations has made Covid “like the flu.” That’s ony true insofar as vulnerable individuals, including older folks, are advised to get an annual immunization against the prevailing strain of influenza. But unlike the flu, Covid vaccines are recommended now for just about everyone above the age of 12. Covid, and in particular the Delta strain, still causes a much higher rate of severe illness among normal patients than seassonal influenza. So no, not like the flu. Not like the flu yet at all.