Europe’s surge has reached American shores. Rolling back the reopening is inconvenient, but may be the only way to prevent a new strain and more deaths.

(Originally published Nov. 15 in “What in the World“) Covid cases are rising again in the U.S. already, just after reopening to vaccinatd visitors from abroad, and contributing to a new winter wave of global infection. The resurgence is being led in the Midwest, Southwest and parts of the Northeast, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The only positive aspect of this development is that cases appear to be growing less rapidly than during the winter surge that took place this time last year. And while the infection rate is rising, the mortality rate is holding steady. On the contrary, Covid is killing people at a pretty steady rate of about 7,000 a day.

The surge has again sent new infections to a record high in Germany. Politicians are now calling for a revival of restrictions on gathering and have reintroduced free Covid tests. Austria, where cases are soaring even higher, has taken a step further by imposing a lockdown on unvaccinated individuals.

The surge is putting paid to the notion that we can “live with the virus,” at least not at current vaccination rates. If the steadily rising death toll—5.1 million and counting (that’s 100,000 people dead from “just another flu” in two weeks!)—doesn’t impress you, perhaps the economic toll will: U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen this week warned that the labor shortages caused by Covid will keep the supply chain tight and inflation high until we manage to get the pandemic under control.

The key is to avoid complacency: yes, the rate of deaths per infection is declining as infections surge and the death rate stays constant. And, yes, most infections and deaths are afflicting the unvaccinated, many of whom have chosen not to get inoculated. But the more infections there are, the more likely vaccinated people are to suffer a breakout case, which though unlikely to be fatal, may cause serious illness and put them at risk of “long Covid.” Worse, 60% of the planet hasn’t been vaccinated, most becaus they haven’t yet had access to vaccines, so perpetuating the pandemic puts all of them at risk. And lastly, every new infection gives the virus a chance to mutate into something much worse that is either more virulent (causes more severe symptoms or death), or more infectious (potentially evading the vaccines we’re now relying on).

Now that so many of us are inoculated, we are also becoming inured to the data. But we fail to react at our peril.