A year since the start of the first global surge, the rate of infection—and even deaths—from Covid are right back where they were.

(Originaly published Nov. 17 in “What in the World“) European countries are stepping up measures to stave off the winter surge in Covid cases as the pandemic mounts a ferocious new offensive. In addition to Austria’s lockdown on the unvaccinated, Germany is now saying it will require unvaccinated residents to produce proof of a negative Covid test in order to ride public transport and is considering mandatory vaccines for those working among vulnerable populations, like nursing homes. France is already requiring boosters shots for anyone over 65, and Italy is requiring that anyone wanting to go to work be vaccinated or have proof of having recovered from Covid or a negative test to work. Even parts of Spain, which has enjoyed much lower infection rates than the rest of Europe, are now being forced to reimpose restrictions on gathering.

Just as the winter surge gains momentum, countries in Asia are jumping on the bandwagon and making the ill-fated decision to reopen to vaccinated visitors from abroad, the latest being India. This seems sensible on the face of it. But vaccinated people can carry Covid and spread it among both vaccinated locals and unvaccinated kids and holdout adults. Asia managed to keep its rates low while borders were closed. Singapore believed mistakenly it could reopen safely once its vaccination rate neared 80%. Singapore instead suffered its worst spike in infections since the pandemic began and has had to reimpose restrictions on gathering.

It has become clear that vaccination doesn’t sufficiently hinder infection to the point that vaccines create herd immunity, at least not with vaccination rates below about 85%. Here is the very short list of countries that have both achieved that and thereby reduced their infection rate to the point that they are justified in lifting restrictions on gathering, mobility and international travel:

• Malta
• Spain
• United Arab Emirates
• Uruguay

Bahrain, Qatar and San Marino have fallen off the list since I last compiled it, because they only have slightly more than 80% theoretical immunity, not 85%. Indeed, San Marino has seen a rise in infections. Chile and Portugal have also dropped off the list due rising infections despite having 80% immunity.

What’s very worrisome is that infection rates are still soaring in a handful of countries that have ostensibly achieved 85% immunity, like Belgium and the Netherlands. The CDC has even raised its warning against U.S. citizens traveling to Iceland, long a leader in testing and vaccination, as infections surge there despite an immunity rate of at least 85%.

This means the U.S. is almost certain to share Europe’s sharp resurgence in cases this winter and, indeed, cases are already on the rise. The U.S. vaccination rate remains far below those in western Europe and it has hastened to lift restrictions as soon as the rate of new infections began to abate, despite never actually sinking back to pre-Delta levels. But the Biden Administration is still being forced to fight a legal challenge to its vaccine mandate on large employers.

Fortunately, many U.S. states, including California, are now authorizing booster shots for adults ahead of federal approval, which could come later this week. The drive to vaccinate kids is still in progress, but in the meantime, U.S. schools are resorting to repeated tests of kids to avoid quarantining them every time they’re exposed to another student with Covid. The sooner children are vaccinated, the better.

Looking back at the pandemic’s progress, we are now roughly back to where we were in late-October, 2020. Even the death rate is roughly the same. Let’s hope vaccines manage to keep that from rising along with the winter surge. New treatments for those with severe infections offer hope that the toll might be kept from rising.