Vaccination efforts were too slow, and restrictions lifted too quick, to create the herd immunity needed to halt this winter’s surge.
(Originally published Nov. 25 in “What in the World“) World Health Organization director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on Wednesday amplified the organization’s warnings on the winter resurgence in Europe, saying people have a “false sense of security” in vaccines and have returned to normal, when they need to keep wearing masks and practicing social distancing in order to reduce transmission. A day earlier, the WHO’s regional director Dr. Hans Kluge called for a “vaccine plus” approach.
The WHO still says the priority should be getting first doses to all unvaccinated adults, particularly those in poor countries with no access yet to vaccines. But as infections continue to set records across Europe, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control’s head on Wednesday reversed policy by recommending booster shots for all adults, with priority for all of those over 40 years of age. Italy joined Germany (which did indeed surpass 100,000 Covid-related deaths yesterday), France, the Czech Republic and Slovakia in imposing restrictions on the unvaccinated, as Ireland and the Netherlands imposed shorter opening hours to reduce gathering and Austria is imposing a total lockdown.
The list of countries that have apparently achieved a measure of “herd immunity,” where the aggregate immunity conferred by vaccinations and infections seems to have subdued new infections, keeps getting shorter. Here’s this week’s roll call:
- Cuba
- United Arab Emirates
- Uruguay
Cuba joins the list after a recent surge in vaccinations that has pushed its vaccination rate above 80%. Malta and Spain have dropped off the list because of surging infections, despite each having an immunity rate of ostensibly 91%.
Clearly, many people who had Covid are also getting vaccinated, meaning the number of unvaccinated people still vulnerable to infection may be higher than vaccination rates suggest, but it also means that vaccinated people are getting infected, especially as their immunity subsides, and thus contributing to the resurgence of infection. Herd immunity is proving unattainable thanks to slow rates of vaccination, coupled with premature reopenings that continually allow the Delta strain of Covid-19 to find new hosts until those vaccinated lose sufficient immunity to become infected.
Most troubling is that Portugal is at 98% but is still seeing a surge in infections. Singapore’s latest surge appears to be abating as it nears 96% immunity rate. Chile’s latest surge—which came after it reopened to international visitors with just 5-day quarantine—is abating as it reaches 92% immunity.
More disturbing are the much higher infection rates surging in northern European nations with immunity rates above 85%—in Belgium, Iceland, Ireland and the Netherlands. Only in Iceland does the surge show any sign yet of actually abating as herd immunity kicks in.
The good news is that, while Portugal is seeing a slight increase in Covid deaths, its fatality rate remains a fraction what it was during previous surges. And Covid-related hospitalizations remain flat for both Portugal and Spain.
This may encourage those whose goal is merely not to die from Covid or get so ill they require medical attention. But for those hoping to stay healthy and avoid the risk of “long Covid,” this is bad news. It’s also very bad news for anyone from one of the “zero Covid” jurisdictions such as China or Hong Kong, since it increases the likelihood of infection despite having been vaccinated.
And in the battle of humanity against the coronavirus, it is strategically bad because each new infection provides the virus an opportunity to mutate into something more transmissible, more virulent or that can evade vaccines.
We also need to worry that southern Europe may still be in for a wave of more severe infections of the kind being experienced in northern Europe, where Covid-related hospitalizations are rising despite high vaccination rates.
