The new strain is said to be rapidly displacing Delta, but still hasn’t produced what many fear is a new surge in hospitalizations and death.

(Originally published Dec. 16 in “What in the World“) Omicron is surging just as the Delta wave begins to fade. Case numbers reveal that, even as the new strain rips through the UK, the recent winter surge that blew across Europe appears to be losing some momentum there and in the United States. Given how much more contagious Omicron has proved than Delta, however, experts believe it is already taking over so fast from Delta that it is driving a new wave of infections in the U.S. and Europe that will become more apparent as people travel to gather over the Holidays. Belatedly, the EU has begun vaccinating children and Germany is spending $2.5 billion to restock its vaccine supplies.

Omicron may be less severe than Delta, but much more contagious. And that may lead to a new surge in hospitalizations, but likely result in fewer deaths from Covid going forward. Hence, experts like Anthony Fauci are saying current vaccines may be enough to fight Omicron. Why? Vaccination doesn’t prevent infection by Omicron, only severe illness. But a booster shot does so far appear to lower the risk of infection to roughly the same level as an initial vaccine would against Delta, i.e. about 50:50.

With logic like this, we are doomed to having to vaccinate every single person every six months as immunity fades. It’s an impossible scenario, given that we’ve been unable to vaccinate even half of the global population once. And the virus is mutating continually to evade even that immunity.

We had better hope that with Omicron Covid has finally delivered a version of itself we can live with. Hopefully Omicron will have a mortality rate roughly similar to influenza, i.e. a death toll we can accept as part of the normal risks associated with living a normal life. So far, that appears to be the case, as Omicron’s spread has yet to produce the feared resurgence in fatalities.

A new study in Hong Kong sheds some light into why. The study found that Omicron is able to replicate up to 70 times more rapidly in the airways, which may help explain why it seems to much more transmissible. But the same study found that the new strain replicates about a tenth as much in lung tissue, which may explain why it so far seems so much less severe. No word yet on what this may mean for Covid’s impact on other organs and tissues, as the virus has so far shown to be a vascular illness, affecting the epithelial linings of blood vessels by binding to the ACE2 receptor of those cells and thereby interfering with those cells’ ablility to regulate blood flow to affected tissue.

Covid’s death toll may, however, be mitigated by treatments that reduce its severity by inhibiting the virus’ ability to replicate, like that by Merck and a newer version from Pfizer that the company says is also likely to be effective against Omicron. Pfizer’s pill has to be taken within five days of symptoms. The Administration of U.S. President Joe Biden has already ordered enough of the pills to treat 10 million people.