As Russia pursues its reconquest of Ukraine, the world is cleaving into new spheres of influence

(Originally published March 4 in “What in the World“) French President Emanuel Macron is warning that the worst is yet to come in Ukraine, after a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin convinced him that he won’t be satisfied with anything less than the complete conquest of Ukraine.

Members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and other European nations continue to pour weapons into Ukraine to aid its defense despite the risk that Putin labels the aid as “intervention” and expands his war beyond Ukraine into the Baltics and Eastern Europe, or worse, makes good on his veiled threat to deploy nuclear weapons. So far, though, NATO has resisted calls to engage Russia’s military directly, including enforcing a “no-fly” zone over Ukraine.

As Russia slogs forward in its campaign to reconquer Ukraine, there are already signs of the Cold War that may ensue. NATO has moved 22,000 troops into members states on Russia’s border, where the Baltic states and Poland fear they may be next on Putin’s shopping list.

Sudan’s military junta is meanwhile negotiating to lease Russia a base on the Red Sea. How Western financial sanctions might affect a potential Russian investment in a Port Sudan base is unclear. But if Russia does gain a base there, it could potentially menace crucial shipments of Gulf oil and Asian goods through the Suez Canal to Europe, making the continent even more reliant on pipelines and trade routes through Russian-controlled territory. China should also be concerned, since Russian influence over the Suez Canal could disrupt both its imports and exports, making Beijing more beholden to Russia’s ability to disrupt China-built railways across Central Asia, notably Kazakhstan.