What happens in Ukraine, stays in Ukraine? The answer may determine whether a new global conflagration is already underway.

(Originally published March 8 in “What in the World“) Russia planned a blitzkrieg in Ukraine, but has instead slipped into the very quagmire Russia analysts assumed Putin knew he would face if he invaded Ukraine. If the U.S. strategy was to goad him into just such a disastrous misstep by denying him security assurances in Ukraine, mission accomplished!

This portends a long proxy battle for Ukraine that ties Russia down and is fed by Western arms and mercenaries. The risk is that Putin sends the 700,000 Russian soldiers still not deployed to Ukraine onto a new misadventure against the West. The Baltic states, fearing they’re next on Putin’s shopping list, are demanding greater military protection from NATO and the U.S.

But an even bigger risk, alas, is that Russia loses in Ukraine, prompting Putin to panic and push the nuclear button. Russia has already shut itself off from the internet, placing its people into a national echo chamber where Moscow’s polarizing narrative of persecution can prevail. Already, the letter “Z,” a symbol of the Russian military, has been adopted as a popular expression of support for the invasion.

Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman believes World War III has already begun. If we’re to stop it, the West needs to find a face-saving solution in Ukraine that allows Putin to claim some kind of victory for Russian pride and the protection of its security interests against NATO encroachment. Short of that, Putin is a cornered animal.