While the U.S. is trying to pressure Putin in Ukraine without direct military confrontation, fearful allies in Eastern Europe may have other ideas.

(Originally published March 9 in “What in the World“) The massive flow of weapons from the West to help Ukraine resist the Russian invasion continues. But the Pentagon rejected an offer from Poland to hand over its entire fleet of 28 MiG-29 fighter jets to the United States to then hand over to Ukraine in return for used U.S.-made fighters.

The problem: the MiGs would first need to fly from Poland to a U.S. base in Germany, then back east to Ukraine, meaning NATO jets would then be flying into airspace contested by Russia and thus put the West into direct military conflict with Moscow. Never mind the Stingers and Javelins shooting down his own MiGs and destroying his tanks: the sight of Ukrainians flying Polish MiG’s against Russian invaders would likely have pushed Russian President Vladimir Putin into new fits of atomic-powered rage. Intelligence officials have warned Congress that they believe Putin is likely to keep escalating in Ukraine in an effort to overcome a stubborn resistance that has taken Russia by surprise and stymied what it thought would be a quick victory.

But Russia’s former satellites aren’t likely to be satisfied with standing by: they worry Ukraine is just the first item on Putin’s to-do list. That’s prompted U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to remind them—and Putin—that NATO will defend “every inch” of NATO members’ territory during a trip across the Baltics and Eastern Europe this week.

Russia isn’t the only pariah state taking advantage of pandemic disarray to provoke the U.S. and its allies: North Korea, which has been engaging in a flurry of missile tests since January, has resumed construction of a nuclear-testing facility and on Tuesday sent ships into South Korean waters on the eve of presidential elections there.

In response to what it sees as a growing threat from autocracies worldwide, Australia has announced it will build a submarine base on its east coast that can host not only U.S. subs, but also the nuclear submarines it will be getting from the U.S. and United Kingdom after they scuppered a deal to buy subs from France.