Zelensky continues to call for NATO’s defense while suggesting actual NATO membership may be off the cards

(Originally published March 17 in “What in the World“) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for increased assistance against Russia’s invasion in his speech to the U.S. Congress, after which U.S. President Joe Biden duly approved $800 million in additional military aid for Ukraine. The aid doesn’t give Zelensky the no-fly zone he requested, but does include more Stinger and Javelin missiles as well as 100 small, “kamikaze” drones.

Zelensky’s speech to Congress was as notable for what he didn’t say as for what he said. He didn’t repeat something he told the U.K.-led Joint Expeditionary Force the day before, that Ukraine could no longer expect membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization:

“It is clear that Ukraine is not a member of NATO; we understand this. … For years we heard about the apparently open door, but have already also heard that we will not enter there, and these are truths and must be acknowledged.”

That statement was a major olive branch and made huge headlines in Europe yesterday, helping drive oil prices and defense stocks sharply lower. It would appear to remove one of the major justifications Russian President Vladimir Putin has listed for launching the invasion and create auspices for a negotiated peace agreement that would leave Ukraine intact.

The JEF includes the UK and several other NATO members—Denmark, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, and Norway—as well as two non-NATO members—Finland and Sweden.

But Zelensky didn’t repeat this observation during his appeal to Congress, instead invoking Pearl Harbor and 9/11 in saying the U.S. had a moral duty to defend Ukraine even if it wasn’t a member of NATO.

The risks of direct U.S. involvement in the war continue to rise with every day victory eludes the Russians. Washington has previously warned that Moscow has plans to deploy biological or chemical weapons against Ukraine, and that it was to provide justification for doing so that it called an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council to allege that the U.S. had been helping Ukraine develop biological weapons at labs there. On Wednesday, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan—who spent Monday rattling sabers at China to keep it from offering Russia help—warned his Russian counterpart against using biological or chemical weapons in Ukraine.

But experts warn that Putin’s increasing desperation in Ukraine, combined with a growing NATO military buildup on Ukraine’s border, raises the risk of a military confrontation that sparks a nuclear exchange.