Amid fears Moscow is using peace talks to prepare a new Ukraine offensive, Canada and the superpowers are squaring on top of the world

(Originally published March 30 in “What in the World“) Canada will spend $15.2 billion dollars to buy 88 F-35 fighter jets as it beefs up its defense capabilities. Canada’s defense spending has long been a sore spot with its heavily armed neighbor to the south. But as Russia moves in on a warming Arctic, Canada is looking to do more to pull its hemispheric weight.

Talks in Istanbul between Russia in Ukraine appear to be nudging towards the solution Jeffrey Sachs advocates: Basically, give Russia what it wants in name if not in law. That is, Ukrainian neutrality, Crimea, and Donbas. That or risk a world war we’re not willing to fight. If nothing else, he argues, Ukraine will be destroyed long before Russia ever capitulates. And fighting until it does risks a wider, potentially world-ending, nuclear war.

Analysts warn the talks may just be a Russian play for time as its forces pull back from Kyiv and regroup in Belarus for a new offensive. Russian troops haven’t withdrawn from Kyiv, after all. And while Ukraine is willing to discuss neutrality, it has asked in return for security guarantees from the West that to Russian President Vladimir Putin will be tantamount to it joining NATO. It also remains to be seen whether the autonomy proposed for Donbas and virtual control of Crimea will be acceptable to Moscow.

Then there’s the fear (prevalent in Eastern Europe) that Putin isn’t just after these smaller goals, but rather the total conquest of Ukraine and a rollback of NATO to its Cold War frontiers. Russia’s attempts to score a quick, conventional victory in Ukraine have bogged down. But there’s still the risk that Putin is sufficiently insane to deploy chemical, biological or tactical nuclear weapons in order to break Ukraine’s back.

Whether or not Russia’s assault stops in Ukraine, any illusion Europe may have had about its long-term security has been shattered. All across the continent, governments are beefing up their defense spending and battening down for the worst.