Russia warns of ‘unpredictable consequences’ from Western military aid to Ukraine as Washington starts shipping offensive weapons to Kyiv

(Originally published April 15 in “What in the World“) Moscow has sent a formal diplomatic note to Washington warning of “unpredictable consequences” if the United States and its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization keep supplying Ukraine with weapons.

The latest U.S. military assistance to Ukraine for the first time includes America-made artillery, previously considered too offensive to avoid violating Russian President Vladimir Putin’s warning against direct interference. Aid so far has been limited to strictly defensive equipment like the Soviet-era anti-aircraft system Slovakia just shipped across its border into Ukraine. But with Russia seemingly on teh defensive after being repelled from Kyiv and the sinking of its flagship “Moskva” in the Black Sea, Washington is seemingly adopting the mantra that the best defense is a good offense. Anything that helps drive Russian forces out of Ukraine is a “defensive” weapon.

This new tack would also seem to clear a path to providing Ukraine with fighter jets to replace those lost to Russian attack, something Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has pleaded for but which Washington has rejected, even when Poland offered to swap its old Soviet MiGs to Ukraine in return for new U.S. fighters. It seems only a slightly longer stretch to justify whether NATO personnel might also be handy way to defend Ukraine. Indeed, two American lawmakers, Senator Steve Daines of Montana and Ukrainian-born Indiana Representative Victoria Spartz, popped up in Kyiv Thursday to tour alleged Russian atrocities and demonstrate their willingness to serve as martyrs to America’s defense of Ukraine.

Russia’s diplomatic note to the U.S. might suggest that Putin isn’t willing to accept Washington’s new interpretation of defense and may use it to justify further escalation of the war, widening attacks beyond Ukraine or using unconventional weapons. Former Russian President and now head of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev has warned that, if Finland and Sweden join NATO, Russia would likely deploy nuclear weapons to its Baltic enclave Kaliningrad, which is wedged between Poland and Lithuania. And the director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, William J. Burns, said Thursday the agency remains concerned that Putin could in desperation use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine.