Taiwan rebuffs China’s claim to the waters between them; Biden mulls drones for Ukraine to avoid defeat

(Originally published June 15 in “What in the World“) China has once again raised the risk of war in the East China Sea.

Having claimed virtually the entire South China Sea since the end of World War II, China in 2013 declared most of the East China Sea part of its Air Defense Identification Zone, even though it overlaps with a patch of ocean already within Japan’s ADIZ and includes the Senkaku Islands off the northern tip of Taiwan that are claimed by Japan and China. This week Beijing asserted that the Taiwan Straits aren’t international waters, but rather an inland waterway.

Taiwan rebuffed that claim Tuesday, retorting that the Taiwan Straits are an international waterway. Fortunately, most international shipping between Japan, South Korea and the Malacca Strait appears to route along the eastern side of Taiwan and so avoid the Taiwan Straits with its traffic between busy China’s eastern seaboard and points south.

As Russia closes in on victory in Donbas, Western officials worry Ukraine has no strategy for repelling the invasion and winning the war. But the Pentagon has said it won’t push Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky into negotiating a ceasefire. That raises the odds that: a) the war bogs down into a stalemate supported by steady Western arms and aid; b) the West escalates its investment to allow Ukraine to win; or c) Ukraine loses the war and Russia wins.

Washington is apparently choosing option b). The Administration of U.S. President Joe Biden is reportedly close to selling Ukraine four MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones, which can be armed with Hellfire precision missiles. All it needs is to get Congressional approval, get the drones to Ukraine and get Ukrainian forces the know-how to use them.