Attack on Crimean base may give Moscow the pretext it needs to defend Kaliningrad from encirclement by NATO

(Originally published Aug. 10 in “What in the World“) Ukraine attacked a Russian airbase in Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, and so considers Russian sovereign territory. Moscow may, therefore, accuse Ukraine and the U.S. of expanding the war and launching a direct attack against Russia, thereby inviting direct retaliation against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The U.S. provided Ukraine with M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or Himars, on the condition Kyiv not use them to attack Russian territory.

Military analysts have been concerned Moscow may be looking for a pretext to seize the territory separating its Baltic enclave Kaliningrad from Belarus, the so-called Suwalki corridor. As if to underscore the risks now facing the Baltics, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is today just 300km away in Riga, affirming the U.S. commitment to defend the former Soviet state of Latvia, a card-carrying NATO member since 2004. The first U.S. troops arrived in Latvia on Feb. 23, the day before Russia invaded Ukraine.

Russia, meanwhile, launched an Iranian spy satellite, though Tehran said it would be used for environmental, not military purposes. Expect a palpable increase in Israel’s temperature.