The U.S. keeps up its play-by-play of Russia’s Ukrainian invasion as Europe tries to ignore Covid away

(Originally published Feb. 4 in “What in the World“) The United States has fleshed out its accusation that Russia plans to mount a “false-flag” operation to justify an invasion of Ukraine, saying Russia will stage a fake video that appears to show a Ukrainian attack against Russia or Russian-speaking Ukrainians.

Exposing Russia’s strategy is part of Washington’s continued “tattle-tale” strategy of broadcasting Vladimir Putin’s plans before they unfold. The assumption seems to be that by removing Putin’s veil of secrecy, the Russian president will cancel what might be an ill-fated invasion. But some Putin-watchers (including Putin) say it may only be goading Russia into launching one.

Congress is meanwhile rushing to draft legislation that would impose sanctions on Russia if and when it does invade, with Senators worried Moscow will move before they can pass it. The proposed legislation would also include provisions to send more weapons to Ukraine.

But sanctions may not be the threat they once were. The New York Times’ Max Fisher has detailed how Putin has been beefing up Russia’s stash of foreign-currency reserves, while reducing the proportion of those reserves held in U.S. dollars. If the U.S. tries to shut Russia out of the dollar-dominated global financial system, Moscow can use those reserves to pay for crucial imports without torpedoing the value of the ruble. And reducing its exposure to the dollar also has the effect of lowering Russia’s vulnerability to U.S. control over dollar-denominated international payments.

Even if no conflict emerges, the crisis already appears to have achieved one lasting impact: there’s no way now the U.S. will be able to draw down its forces in Europe and pivot them to Asia. The U.S. will instead need to maintain two-front preparedness for the foreseeable future, with one eye on Russia’s Western border and the other on China’s coastline. For its part, China appears to be using the crisis to bolster its narrative of the U.S. as a global bully and would-be imperialist.

As Covid continues to claim an increasing number of lives daily, the World Health Organization has designated Omicon’s more infectious subvariant BA.2 a “variant of concern.” It’s also tracking three other Omicron subvariants that have emerged. Yet more European nations are waving the white flag and lifting restrictions to limit transmission of the virus—the latest being early Covid collaborator Sweden. Sweden, you may recall, began the pandemic with a disastrous strategy to ignore the virus and achieve herd immunity by letting it decimate its own population.

Yet the desperation to put the pandemic behind us has clearly affected even WHO officials, one of whom sent another confusing signal yesterday. Hans Kluge, WHO’s Europe director, has spent the last several hours frantically clarifying himself after media seized on his tweet that Europe may be able to declare a “ceasefire” with Covid and enjoy a period of “tranquility” and “enduring peace.” Never mind that he enumerated that this was thanks to high rates of vaccination and continued booster shots, and that it required continued “strong governmental oversight and commitment; [promoting] self-protecting behavior and individual responsibility—here with lower governmental oversight to limit unnecessary socio-economic impacts.”

Kluge later issued this tweet to clarify that his attempt at optimism was meant as encouragement, not a call for surrender: “Referring to a plausible endgame for the pandemic—not to say that it is now all over—but to highlight that in the European Region, there is a singular opportunity to take control of the transmission.”