White House builds case to raise stakes against Russia; Dutch double down

(Originally published Sept. 11 in “What in the World‘) Sure enough, after accusing Iran of exporting missiles to Russia, the White House is edging towards letting Ukraine fire long-range American missiles into Russia.

Lame-duck U.S. President Joe Biden told reporters yesterday that his Administration was working out whether to lift the ban, one of the last he has yet to lift. Quoting unnamed officials, Reuters reported last week that the White House was already close to a decision to do so.

A reversal would follow about-faces on a long string of previous restrictions aimed at easing Moscow—and the American public—into war with Russia: first Stingers, then howitzers, then Himars rocket launchers, then Patriot missiles, then Abrams battle tanks, then F-16s and then long-range Atacms, and most recently longer-range Atacms. In May, Biden agreed to let Ukraine use U.S. weapons against Russians amassing in Kursk province to attack Ukraine’s Sumy province, then in June expanded that to anywhere in Russia attackers might be.

But Biden has still left long-range MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems, or Atacms, off the list of permitted weapons. That has frustrated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who wants to use them to hit Russian air bases launching fighters, bombers, and missiles from well behind the border. He says the White House’s public justification for refusing him—that it risks provoking Russia into using nuclear weapons or widening the war by attacking Europe—is ridiculous. To illustrate his point, Ukraine launched its surprise invasion of Kursk and this week a massive wave of home-made drones that reached as far as greater Moscow.

According to Reuters, the White House is considering not only letting Ukraine fire its Atacms across the border, but also giving Kyiv Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles, or Jassms. Jassms are air-launched cruise missiles that Ukraine’s Danish and Dutch F-16s, which also aren’t allowed to fly across the border into Russia, could fire from over Ukraine at targets inside Russia.

U.S. assistant secretary of state Kurt Campbell, in Brussels to visit the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, on Tuesday escalated U.S. accusations against China for supporting Russia’s war effort. The White House has long accused Beijing of exporting products, like commercially available drones and their components, used by Russia’s military. Campbell said Beijing and Moscow are coordinating such exports at “the highest levels,” with Russia providing military technology in return for Chinese assistance.

China and Russia are, meanwhile, conducting what Russian President Vladimir Putin said are the largest joint military exercises between the two in 30 years. The drills involve 90,000 troops, 120 aircraft, and 400 ships in the Arctic and Pacific Oceans, and the Baltic, Caspian, and Mediterranean seas.

The Dutch, meanwhile, are joining the list of European countries spending big to boost their defenses against Russia. The Dutch aim to raise their defense spending by roughly 10% next year, with a goal of doubling its military outlays from their 2022 levels. On its shopping list are F-35 fighter jets, as well as drones, frigates, helicopters, and tanks—not to mention ammunition and air-defense systems.

While Russian President Vladimir Putin certainly scares Europeans, former U.S. President and re-election candidate Donald Trump terrifies them. NATO members have been concerned that Trump, if re-elected, wouldn’t have the kind of advisers to again talk him out of withdrawing from NATO and pulling U.S. troops out of Europe. After spending a record $259 billion on defense in 2022, European nations likely spent $291 billion on weapons in 2023. But the prospect of Trump’s reelection may force NATO members to go even further and consider whether they need to replace the U.S. nuclear umbrella with one of their own.

Denmark, for example, has more than doubled its defense spending in the past decade, putting it in third place behind Ukraine and Poland in terms of accelerating military spending, according to the latest data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Denmark cut back its military spending at the end of the Cold War and last year spend just short of 2% of GDP on defense. But with threats from Russia and former U.S. President Donald Trump rising, Copenhagen last month announced that it would boost its defense budget by roughly 50%, allocating an additional 40.5 billion Danish crowns ($5.8 billion) on top of the 155 billion crowns it has budgeted for the military over the next decade.