Covid’s latest strain hasn’t even peaked yet, but the next surge may come from Russia.

(Originally published Jan. 17 in “What in the World“) Governments continue to wave the white flag before Omicron’s continued assault, overruling warnings from experts that it’s too early to relax restrictions aimed at slowing transmission and that the increasingly popular “living with the virus” alternative underestimates the dangers posed by omicron. Indeed, U.S. surgeon general Dr. Vivek Murthy has warned that the U.S. has yet to see the back of the latest surge as hospitalizations and deaths continue to climb. And the more infections Omicron is allowed to rack up, the sooner we’re likely to see a new variant hit.

But Western governments lack the political willpower to revive the restrictions of 2020 and 2021. For those who want to avoid what comes next, make sure your vaccines remain up-to-date, reduce contact with others and when you do have to go into closed spaces with folks, wear a good mask. And that means a surgical mask, not a cloth one.

Among its other, more publicized side-effects, the pandemic has also tipped off what appears to be a new phase of geopolitical instability as various nations use the fact that the West has been put off-balance to further their own ambitions and test their opponents’ resolve. North Korea, which until recently was thought to have been pacified by the pandemic, last Friday followed tests of an ultransonic missile by firing yet more missiles.

And Europe is fretting about rising Russian belligerence, including its buildup of forces around Ukraine and its ally Belarus’ flooding of Poland with Middle Eastern refugees. Russia has also reportedly moved landing craft into the Baltic, prompting Sweden to step up patrols on Gotland in the middle of the Baltic.

In fact, the invasion of Ukraine may have already begun, starting with a cyberattack last week. And while Moscow denies it, U.S. officials have accused Russia of sending saboteurs into Ukraine to aid secessionists and presage an invasion there. Beyond Ukraine, Washington also worries Russia may start moving nuclear weapons closer to the United States.