US hands Kyiv $8bn in arms; Israel readies Lebanon invasion; China tests a missile

Israel is preparing to launch a ground offensive in southern Lebanon.

(Originally published Sept. 26 in “What in the World“) Israeli Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi told troops Wednesday that airstrikes are preparing for them to mount an attack against Hezbollah in the region.

Russian President Vladimir Putin stepped up his warnings that letting Ukraine use long-range Western missiles in Russia might trigger nuclear retaliation. Putin on Wednesday announced a change to Russia’s nuclear response policy, saying that any conventional attack by a non-nuclear nation, if aided by a nuclear power, would be considered a joint attack by both against Russia.

Putin’s announcement may be causing the White House to rethink lifting its restriction against Kyiv using the missiles. U.S. President Joe Biden won’t let Ukraine use long-range Atacms against targets inside Russia. And because they contain U.S.-made components, Biden also gets to block France and the U.K. from letting him use Storm Shadow and Scalp long-range cruise missiles. If the White House backtracks on what a drumbeat of media leaks suggested was another of Biden’s well-telegraphed escalations, it will be a major publicity blow for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has traveled all the way to Washington this week to deliver a “victory plan” meant to accompany the reversal.

Biden soothed the pain, however, by handing Zelensky almost $8 billion in additional weapons in what he called a “surge” of aid. Biden will first expend the remaining $5.5 billion in existing U.S. stockpiles available under the Presidential Drawdown Authority before the end of the government’s fiscal year, and another $2.4 billion in brand-new, off-the-shelf weapons Washington will buy for Ukraine. The new weapons appear to include Jassms, as well as more Atacms, even if they can’t be fired into Russia.

China, meanwhile, made a rare public announcement that it had tested an ICBM, firing it somewhere into the Pacific. China said the test was part of its annual training, but a former Pentagon official working in Singapore told The Wall Street Journal that the announcement was likely meant to intimidate Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan. The U.S. hasn’t tested one of its Minutemen III ICBMs since way back in, oh, wait: it was in June. It fired not one, but two into the Pacific. And it tested another the previous November. It isn’t clear whom those tests were meant to intimidate. Maybe the spiders spinning cobwebs in those Midwestern missile silos? Besides, when Washington flexes, it’s “deterrence.” China hasn’t conducted an ICBM test, at least not one announced publicly, since the early 1980s.

But Washington may have more evidence to back up its allegations that China is supplying Russia with lethal aid. Reuters reports having obtained documents proving that a Russian defense contractor has set up a factory in China to produce long-range attack drones with the help of Chinese specialists. IEMZ Kupol has reportedly sent several sample G3 drones back to Russia from China, Reuters said, citing documents it received from a European intelligence agency. The G3 can carry a payload of 50kg to a target 2,000km away. Kupol told its bosses back in Russia that within eight months it could produce a Chinese-designed drone that could, like the U.S. Reaper drone, carry a 400kg payload.

China denied any knowledge of the factory or the export of attack drones. The White House National Security Council said Reuters’ report appeared to document a Chinese company providing lethal assistance to a U.S.-sanctioned Russian one. The documents said the Russians worked with a Shenzhen-based company, Redlepus TSK Vector Industrial. It wasn’t clear what Redlepus’ role was, though it appears from public information online to be a logistics firm.

The China drone report is likely to buttress accusations by Washington that Iran is shipping missiles to Russia, along with evidence that North Korea is supplying it with ammunition, missiles and other weaponry in return for Russian rocket technology.