Covid-19’s new strain has a name, Omicron. It’s coming fast, may be invisible to vaccines, and no one yet knows just how bad it is.
(Originally published Nov. 29 in “What in the World“) The latest is that the World Health Organization on Friday looked at the new variant of Covid-19 from South Africa, decided it was a “variant of concern,” and dubbed it Omicron. Omicron is likely more contagious than earlier strains and vaccines may not work against it. What no one yet knows is just how sick it will make people. There are early signs it may not be as severe as Delta.
To be safe, countries all over are slamming their borders shut to varying degrees; some only against South Africa and its neighbors, others against different groups of countries in Africa and Europe, and some—namely Israel, Japan and Morocco—to any foreigners whatsoever.
The horse has bolted, however. Omicron has already been detected in Australia, Belgium, Botswana, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and is believed to already have landed in the United States. Whether it displaces the Delta strain as the dominant version of Covid-19 remains to be seen, but likely depends on how well vaccines and the antibodies we have hold up against it and how virulent it is. If it eludes vaccines, it will likely supplant Delta, particularly if it is less virulent and so people who have it are less likely to be put out of circulation, into a sick bed or a hospital.
Assessing the impact of a fast-spreading new strain could take weeks. The effort is complicated by the fact that much of the world was already in the midst of a resurgence in Delta infections. That surge has already prompted a rush to get boosters to early vaccine recipients and vulnerable populations whose immunity is waning. Experts and vaccine makers are already trying to figure out if existing vaccines still work against Omicron and, if not, how to develop new ones that do. In the meantime, experts are warning that Omicron could trigger a new wave of infections.
One of the doctors in South Africa who first identified the new strain said that individuals infected by Omicron have so far exhibited relatively mild, flu-like symptoms of fatigue and body aches, with none of Covid’s normally debilitating effects. The only problem with this prognosis is (in addition to being based anecdotally on a minuscule sample size) that most known Omicron patients have so far been young, and young people typically don’t develop serious Covid symptoms anyway.
In the meantime, infection rates are rising all over, and renewed caution is the best defense. Until we know more about Omicron, assume the worst: we’re back to square one in terms of immunity with a virus that’s even more contagious than Delta. That means that vaccinated individuals in any population where Omicron has been detected should resume whatever precautions they were taking prior to being vaccinated, i.e. wear a mask and social distance, avoid crowded places, minimize travel outside the home and don’t invite in people outside your immediate family.
Unvaccinated individuals should get vaccinated urgently, because Delta isn’t going away and vaccines might still work on Omicron. Reopenings that are underway—and even those that have been completed—should likely be reversed until the coast is clear. And if there was ever any time for a new global lockdown, as this newsletter has recommended before, now is it. Assuming Omicron is passed through the body in two weeks like its predecessors, spending two weeks interred in one’s home seems a small price to pay after almost two years of pandemic.
Omicron’s emergence in southern African is already fueling critics of rich nations for not doing more to ensure that poor countries were able to vaccinate more people sooner. It’s the spread of existing strains, after all, that gives the virus opportunities to mutate into new varieties like Omicron. These cries are likely to fall on deaf ears while infection rates are rising in the northern hemisphere, however. They’ll also likely lose some effectiveness as evidence mounts that existing Covid vaccines are only partially effective at preventing infection, despite being very good at preventing severe illness. The vaccinated are potentially providing Covid a reservoir for mutation, too.
Yes, Virginia, Christmas is effectively cancelled this year.