US stations two carriers in MidEast as Beijing, Manila squabble and Kyiv stews

(Originally published Aug. 26 in “What in the World“) Israel and Hezbollah gave the world a new wake-up call over the weekend.

Just after roughly 100 Israeli fighter jets pounded targets Sunday in southern Lebanon, killing three people, Iran-backed Hezbollah there fired hundreds of rockets into northern Israel, killing one. Israel said its air strikes were a preemptive attack aimed at preventing an even larger attack. Hezbollah denied Israel had prevented anything and said further attacks were possible.

The U.S. is now keeping two aircraft carrier groups in the region as a deterrent to a threatened Iranian attack on Israel. The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group arrived last week, joining the USS Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Group. The Lincoln had reportedly been sent to relieve the Roosevelt, which arrived in early July, but it now appears both groups will remain in the region. Washington has also sent a guided-missile submarine, the USS Georgia, to the region.

Tensions also appear to be heating up between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea—all of which China claims as its territory. Manila said that on Sunday a Chinese warship and coast guard ships rammed a Philippine fisheries vessel traveling to Sabina Shoal—140km from the Philippine island of Palawan—to resupply fishing boats there. Beijing said the vessel was being sent to resupply a Philippine Coast Guard ship, the Teresa Magbanua, anchored there in April to prevent China from building a base on it. China in May flooded the area with ships from the People’s Liberation Army Navy, China Coast Guard, and Maritime Militia.

The latest clash at Sabina follows a collision last week between the Chinese and Philippine coast guards near another nearby atoll. Both sides accused the other of ramming their ships near Second Thomas Shoal, ripping a hole in the hull of one Philippine vessel. In June, Beijing and Manila reached a provisional agreement that allowed the Philippines to resupply that rusting wreck that serves as a Philippine garrison at Second Thomas, though Beijing still claims it as Chinese territory.

The White House is about to approve an additional $125 million in weapons for Ukraine.

Quoting unnamed officials, DefenseNews said the new aid package will include Javelin anti-tank missiles, as well as artillery shells, vehicles, and other equipment. It will also include more rockets for Ukraine’s Himars mobile launchers, the system that helped Kyiv halt Russia’s invasion and whose effectiveness has made it so popular that Norway and now Croatia are ordering up some of their own. The U.S. has provided $55.6 billion in free advertising to its defense contractors military aid to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in February 2022.

Ukraine confirmed last week that it is using U.S.-supplied ordnance in its incursion into Russia’s Kursk province. While that might have seemed obvious given that Ukraine relies on American ammunition, the most visible evidence has been of American Stryker combat vehicles. Most Ukrainian air strikes have relied primarily on domestically produced drones, while using Himars to defend invading troops from positions behind the border in Ukraine. Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lt. Gen. Mykola Oleschuk said last Thursday that they had also used American GBU-39 glide bombs to destroy a Russian platoon base.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been using the success of the Kursk incursion to argue that the U.S. should lift its remaining restrictions on the use of U.S. weapons against Russia. While U.S. President Joe Biden has methodically relented on most of Kyiv’s demands, the White House still won’t let Zelensky use long-range Atacm missiles to hit targets inside Russia, particularly air fields. And because they contain American components, the U.S. also stands in the way of France and the U.K. letting Ukraine use even longer-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles to hit those air fields.

Biden fears that having “Made in USA” rain death down on Russian civilians may provide Russian President Vladimir Putin the pretext he needs to justify going nuclear in Ukraine, or even against Europe. But Zelensky says Putin’s relatively tepid reaction to the incursion means Biden’s fears are unwarranted. “The whole naive, illusory concept of so-called red lines regarding Russia, which dominated the assessment of the war by some partners, has crumbled…” Zelensky said last week.

White House officials also argue that the Atacms wouldn’t do Zelensky much good: thanks in part to the delay in approving their use, Moscow has had time to move many of its aircraft out of range.

But with Ukrainian forces now running rampant inside Russia, it’s clearly Zelensky who now can determine the pace of Western involvement.