Russia grabs more Ukrainian turf ahead of expected Trump-imposed armistice

(Originally published Dec. 2 in “What in the World“) Russian forces are advancing in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk in their latest push to complete their conquest of the entire province.

The Russians have in the past week taken at least 10 villages and are closing in on two stronghold towns, Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka, in near the province’s western border. The head of Britain’s intelligence agency MI6, Richard Moore, warned in a rare speech at the British embassy in Paris that failing to support Ukraine’s efforts to evict Russian invaders would ultimately cost the West more than continuing to do so. Not only would Russia follow success in Ukraine with more threats against Europe, he said, but it would also embolden China, Iran, and North Korea.

President-elect Donald J. Trump’s statements criticizing the cost of supporting Ukraine and the risks of sparking world war suggest he will push Ukraine into negotiating a ceasefire that freezes the front lines, effectively giving Russia control of Ukraine’s Russian-speaking eastern provinces and a land bridge to the strategically vital Crimea. Hence Russia’s recent surge to grab more territory in Donetsk. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday approved a 30% increase in defense spending next year, to 13.5 trillion rubles ($120 billion), a post-Soviet record.

The U.S. spends $877 billion a year on defense. But Trump has threatened to abandon Europe to Russia’s ambitions if members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization fail to boost military spending and shoulder a greater share of the burden for their own defense. So, they are. Vice President-elect JD Vance has suggested also acquiescing to Russia’s demand that Ukraine never be admitted to NATO.

Russia and China, meanwhile, over the weekend conducted their second joint bomber flights over the East China Sea and Sea of Japan. The flights were close enough to South Korea and Japan’s southwest islands that both nations scrambled fighter jets to intercept them. China for the first time deployed nuclear-capable bombers on the joint exercise, flying its H-6 bombers alongside Russian Tu-95 bombers, each accompanies by fighter escorts. Last march, the U.S. began preparing for the possibility that China, North Korea, and Russia might coordinate a nuclear attack against the U.S. and its allies.

Israeli forces attacked several sites they said were being used by the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia to move weapons into Lebanon from Syria in violation of the current ceasefire. Israeli airstrikes also continued in northern Gaza.