As Kyiv begs for more weapons, Russia is betting the West is losing its stomach for the fight

(Originally published July 22 in “What in the World“) Ukraine says modern Western munitions, like the U.S.-supplied M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, are working against Russian forces. If only they had more, Ukraine could turn the tide of the war.

That was Ukrainian First Lady Olena Zelenska’s message Wednesday when she addressed the U.S. Congress. Kyiv knows it needs to keep up the PR campaign for the same reason CIA Director William Burns says Russian President Vladimir Putin believes he can win a war of attrition: eventually the West will get distracted and lose interest in Ukraine, leaving it to be carved up and thus avoid more economic pain or a military escalation that puts American or European lives at real risk. The West, as Putin himself has joked, is only willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.

Indeed, the war has long slipped off the proverbial “front page” of Western news sites. And now the leader of the free world has Covid. Mild symptoms, yes (79-year-old Joe Biden can afford the best healthcare the U.S. has to offer, after all), but emblematic like nothing before of America’s resolute failure to contain the pandemic.

The CIA’s assessment, given at a security conference in Colorado, appears to be at odds with that of its British counterpart, MI6. Chief Richard Moore told the same conference that MI6 believes Russia is about to “run out of steam” and lose its war of attrition in Ukraine. If he’s right, one wonders why Zelenska bothered to make the trip to Washington.

On the contrary, it’s the West that may be bearing the brunt of attrition, justifying the CIA director’s concern. Germany has announced emergency measures to cut its consumption of natural gas as Russia constricts supplies over its Nord Stream 1 pipeline.