As Zelensky prepares to address Congress (and the U.S. public), the White House already seems girded for war with Russia

(Originally published March 15 in “What in the World“) Washington has told its allies that Beijing signaled its willingness to supply Russia with military assistance, according to the Financial Times, but without providing any specific proof. Russia has specifically requested surface-to-air missiles, drones, armored and other transport vehicles as well as intelligence equipment, the FT said, quoting diplomats familiar with the cables. The U.S. White House said the FT’s story was inaccurate as its national security adviser Jake Sullivan met in Rome with his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi for at least seven hours of reportedly “intense” discussions.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky will, meanwhile, address the U.S. Congress via video from Kyiv to request the U.S. increase its own supply of military assistance to Ukraine. His address will be televised live to the American public. The U.S. has already earmarked $13.6 billion in military aid for Ukraine on top of sanctions against Russia. Zelensky has called for the establishment of a no-fly zone, which lawmakers have rejected and that Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned would represent direct intervention against Russia.

But former Merrill Lynch global strategist David Woo argues that this war has already become a U.S. war against Russia and that Washington won’t back down until it has defeated Putin in Ukraine and sent a clear message to China and other autocrats that the U.S. is willing to take the risk of a global recession to fight them.

Woo may be correct that the U.S. thinks it cannot back down in Ukraine without losing to Beijing. This is the same logic that has inflated struggles where the U.S. had very little real interests into part of an imagined global contest for influence and power where no territory is too small to defend. So the U.S. will likely be dragged ever-closer to the precipice. But Woo is likely to be wrong about the U.S. public tolerating the costs of either a recession or a major, costly and drawn-out conflict. The pandemic illustrated that. Putin needs a win in Ukraine, no matter how much it hurts Russia and the rest of the world. But the only real winner in this conflict is China, which wins simply by doing nothing but brokering a ceasefire that prevents world war.

Many fear that Putin’s next target may be the vulnerable Baltic republics, even though attacking them would trigger war with the entire NATO alliance. Whether or not the U.S. and NATO get dragged into direct confrontation with Russia, a new arms race is already underway. Germany on Monday announced it would buy 35 F-35 fighter jets, part of a new defense build-up pledged by Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Korea watchers, meanwhile, expect more missile tests from North Korea. While Pyongyang has claimed the launches are merely tests of new spy satellites, which is troubling enough, the U.S. and South Korea say are part of a plan to develop and test a full intercontinental ballistic missile capable of delivering nuclear attacks against the United States.