As social media jumps on the Ukraine bandwagon, Western leaders remain wary of poking the Russian bear

(Originally published March 2 in “What in the World“) The United States is sending Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger antiaircraft missiles to Ukraine to help it resist Russia’s invading forces.

Russia already appears to be bogged down in its fight to control Ukraine, and is resorting to heavier-handed tactics to overcome a determined Ukrainian resistance. That already includes the heavy rocket bombardment of Kharkiv that is underway, and shelling in Chernihiv.

Despite this, some are marveling at the apparent restraint the Russians have shown thus far. Russia still hasn’t deployed roughly a quarter of its invasion force, and hasn’t yet launched cyberattacks. Whether this is because of poor execution, a quiet counter-offensive of sabotage or because Putin is keeping some gas in the tank remains to be seen. The Russian air force has been mysteriously inactive so far in the campaign.

But calls for U.S. to impose a no-fly zone risk direct military confrontation with Russia. Danger still remains that any move by NATO and the West to support Ukraine could be interpreted by Russia’s increasingly isolated and paranoid President Vladimir Putin as the “interference” he warned at the outset could trigger nuclear retaliation at worst, or an expanded offensive into the Baltics and Moldova.

If the West’s response to the pandemic is any guide, Putin only needs to wait about a year before the U.S. and its allies lose interest in Ukraine’s plight and grows bored of enforcing sanctions. Future aggressors take note: a slow-motion incursion that unfolds over months is likely the best way to beat self-righteous Western indignation and timid financial boycotts.

For the moment, though, outrage is high at the more than 600 Ukrainians killed in the fighting so far. Tragic as that is, it pales next to the almost 7,000 Ukrainians who died of Covid in the past month, about which the global media has written almost nothing. Death needs to be dramatic to make headlines: Ukraine’s 112,000 Covid deaths pale next to the 970,000 Americans lost to the virus so far. Covid is still killing 1,800 Americans every day, but the United States is rapidly dropping mask mandates and pretending the pandemic is over. The West is unfolding sanctions against Russia at the speed of a cruise missile, but so far hasn’t committed a single body to Ukraine’s defense.