After long-range missiles, US looks to follow UK and let Kyiv fire them into Russia

(Originally published May 23 in “What in the World“) After hitting the Kyiv bar scene last week to scratch his dad-band itch, Secretary of State Antony Blinken apparently now supports letting Ukraine fire American missiles into Russia.

Blinken reportedly returned to the White House convinced that forbidding the use of U.S. weapons for Ukraine’s attacks inside Russian territory has allowed Russia to build up troops and weapons just across the border and launch offensives like the one now imperiling northeastern Kharkiv. They’re now building up forces farther north across the border from Sumy province.

Blinken joins a growing number of White House insiders who support lifting the restriction, which Ukrainian lawmakers lobbied against in Washington earlier this month. The top remaining supporter of the restriction is apparently none other than President Joe Biden, who worries lobbing “Made in U.S.A.” missiles into Russia will provoke Russian President Vladimir Putin into deploying nuclear weapons in Ukraine or launching direct attacks against members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, starting with the Baltic states.

We’ve heard this tune before. It’s the same one that has seen the Biden Administration resist, then relent, on giving Ukraine Stingers, then howitzers, then Himars rocket launchers, then Patriot missiles, then Abrams battle tanks , then F-16s and then long-range Atacms, and then even longer-range Atacms.

The only weapon left to give Ukraine is attack drones, which Ukraine is building itself and using to knock out Russian refineries. The Russians are now reportedly knocking more of those drones down, however, even as Ukraine is knocking down less and less of Russia’s incoming missiles. And that has enabled Russia to send its fighter jets into Ukraine without fearing they’ll be immediately shot down.

The instigator (or perhaps the scapegoat) in most of the White House’s retreats on weapons for Ukraine has repeatedly been the United Kingdom—and in particular its Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Sunak has dislodged each and every U.S. restraint by simply giving Ukraine what it wants from Britain’s own arsenal—and let FOMO do the rest.

So before he faces snap elections in July, Sunak has set the stage for Biden once again: 10 Downing has lifted its own restrictions on Kyiv using its Storm Shadow cruise missiles. Storm Shadows have longer range than U.S. Atacms anyway. So, if history is any guide, Kyiv will get the green light to launch its Atacms into Russia any day now.

Washington is also considering sending in U.S. troops into Ukraine to “train” Ukrainian forces. This follows French President Emmanuel Macron’s refusal to rule out a reporter’s suggestion that NATO would have to consider sending troops to defend Ukraine. Biden has vowed not to send U.S. troops into Ukraine, but “trainers” would be different, like the special forces Washington reportedly considered sending to Kyiv a year ago to defend the U.S. Embassy there. The joke was on The Wall Street Journal, which the White House used to leak that proposal. The reality was that U.S. Special Forces were already in Kyiv and have been since shortly after the Russian invasion.

Sending in “trainers” is a tried-and-tested ruse for escalation. It’s precisely the pretext Washington used to introduce U.S. military personnel into Vietnam years before the Marines waded ashore in Da Nang in 1965. Putin knows it. And it’s probably why he’s trying to signal a red line to Washington by launching drills near Ukraine for deploying tactical nuclear weapons. Russia has also deployed a space-based satellite-killing weapon to disrupt Western communications system once World War III breaks out.

The London-Washington relationship in diplomatic PR swings both ways, though. British Defense Minister Grant Shapps, who last month broke the news that France, Italy, and the U.K. were shipping long-range Storm Shadow missile to Ukraine, has now made headlines claiming that British intelligence has evidence that China is preparing to provide Moscow with lethal military aid.

Blinken used the same tactic a year ago, like Shapps furnishing no evidence. But Shapps’ claims will likely gain traction because Beijing has just launched a fresh bout of military exercises around Taiwan, this time to mark the inauguration of Taiwan’s new president Lai Ching-te, whom Beijing has branded a “separatist.” China’s military command said the exercises were meant as “a strong punishment for the separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces and a stern warning against the interference and provocation by external forces.”