Moscow is rattling its nuclear saber again, but rustling its sheaves might be scarier.

(Originally published Sept. 22 in “What in the World“) As Russian President Vladimir Putin doubles down on his invasion of Ukraine by ordering up more troops and threatening to scuttle a deal allowing grain exports from Ukrainian ports, the outlook for global food supplies remains dire.

Ukraine is of course the world’s fifth-largest exporter of wheat. But a new study of satellite imagery estimates that Russia’s invasion has reduced Ukraine’s capacity for storing wheat and other grains by roughly 15%, with 5% of its storage facilities destroyed. The study, by the Yale School of Public Health’s Humanitarian Research Lab in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory, warns that insufficient storage could discourage Ukraine’s farmers from planting crops.

And with climate change causing severe drought and floods around the world, it’s proving difficult to offset supplies lost to war. Drought in Europe will likely send the continent’s corn harvest to a 15-year low, French agriculture consultancy Strategie Grains predicts. Likewise, drought in the U.S. Midwest is hurting America’s corn crop, with the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture forecasting an 8% drop in corn production this year. That’s keeping global food supplies tight, and agricultural executive say it would take at least two years of bumper crops to ease shortages.