US sends more arms to Kyiv as Russia downs long-range missiles; Iran nukes up

(Originally published Nov. 20 in “What in the World“) The U.S. is sending Ukraine another $275 million in weapons as Washington scrambles to give Ukraine a tactical advantage before the inauguration of a new President who has threatened to withdraw military aid.

The latest package follows news that Ukraine fired between six and eight long-range U.S. Atacm missiles into Russia. Russia said it shot down five of at least six long-range U.S. missiles fired into it by Ukraine. A U.S. official, however, said Russian had shot down only two of eight Atacms that Ukraine fired at an ammunition depot in Russia’s Bryansk province.

Russia responded by announcing the its President Vladimir Putin had signed a proposed amendment to Russia’s policy on the use of nuclear weapons, allowing their deployment in the event of a conventional attack by a non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear one. In such an event, the new policy considers the attack a joint one.

Lame-duck U.S. President Joe Biden earlier this week gave into months of pressure from Ukraine and Western allies by lifting one of his last remaining restraints on Ukraine’s use of U.S. weaponry, allowing it to fire the long-range Atacms at targets inside Russia.

Despite Russia’s policy change, analysts say it’s unlikely Moscow would use nuclear weapons, even a small one in Ukraine, because doing so would likely result in direct counterattack by the U.S. and its allies. The bigger danger is that Ukraine, faced with the prospect that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will withdraw military aid and push it into an armistice, uses its U.S. weapons to provoke Russia into just such an attack and draw the North Atlantic Treaty Organization into open conflict on its side.

The new weapons package includes more Himars mobile missile launchers, which fire the Atacms along with a range of other missiles, Javelin anti-tank missiles, as well as 155mm and 105mm artillery shells. The U.S. has provided Ukraine with $60.4 billion in weapons since Russia invaded in February 2022.

Iran has stocked up on weapons-grade uranium as it continues to weigh retaliation against Israel’s airstrike against it last month. With its proxies in Gaza and Lebanon under attack by Israel, some in Tehran are reportedly arguing that Iran’s best defense is to develop nuclear weapons, something analysts in Washington worried Iran might conclude at the time of Israel’s attack.

For those just tuning in: Israel’s Operation “Days of Repentance” Oct. 26 was intended as retaliation for Iran’s launch of 180 missiles against it Oct. 1, which was a retaliation for Israel’s assassination in July of the political leader of Hamas while he was visiting Tehran, which was retaliation for the attack last October that killed more than 1,200 Israelis and triggered Israel’s invasion of Gaza, which has killed more than 43,000 Palestinians and triggered reprisals by Iran’s proxies in the region, including Houthi rebels in Yemen, militants in Iraq and Syria, and Hezbollah in Lebanon, which triggered Israel’s invasion of Lebanon Oct. 1….

According to The Wall Street Journal, the International Atomic Energy Agency issued a confidential report after a visit last week by its monitors to Iran saying that Iran had increased its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium had increased by more than 10% to 182.3kg. That’s enough to build four atomic bombs. Iran could convert the uranium into weapons-grade fuel in just a few days, but building and deploying a bomb would still take it several months, U.S. officials estimate.