As Ukraine and Russia battle towards negotiation, Belarus speaks up

(Originally published Aug. 19 in “What in the World“) Ukraine and Russia appear have each other on the backfoot.

Ukraine is reportedly consolidating its gains in Russia’s Kursk province, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky saying the goal is to establish a buffer zone against Russian attacks. Despite Ukraine’s surprise invasion of Kursk, however, Russia is still managing to launch barrages of missiles and drones into Ukraine. Russian invaders are also reportedly closing in on the city of Pokrovsk, whose capture would help them cement their seizure of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk province.

Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko claimed Sunday that Ukraine had positioned a third of its troops along their shared border. While the claim seems far-fetched—the Kursk incursion is draining scarce defenders from Ukraine’s front line against Russian invaders—Lukashenko said Belarus was responding by moving its own troops to the border.

This raises the prospect that Russian ally Belarus could use alleged Ukrainian aggression as a pretext to enter the war on Russia’s side. Russia began moving nuclear weapons to Belarus in June last year to counter what it said was to counter U.S. deployment nuclear weapons at its airbases in Europe. Russian also used Belarus as an initial staging ground for its invasion of Ukraine in Feb. 2022.

Israel launched another retaliatory air strike Friday against Iran-backed Hezbollah in a southern Lebanese town, killing 10 civilians even as the region braces for an Iranian offensive.

Israel said it had targeted a Hezbollah military depot, but the town’s mayor said the attack had also destroyed a building sheltering Syrian refugees. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Israel trying to push for a ceasefire in Gaza, which has led Iran to delay its promised retaliation for Israel’s assassination of Hamas’ political leader in Tehran last month. In case that fails, USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group is cruising through the Indian Ocean en route to the region as a deterrent.