Unable to win any love from Beijing, Manila jumps ship and swims back into Washington’s waiting arms

(Originally published Feb. 23 in “What in the World“) China has lost the Philippines.

Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., appears to have undergone a conversion since his election last May, becoming a full-fledged member of the U.S.-led alliance of Pacific nations encircling China.

Marcos, son of former Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos Sr., struck a pro-China, anti-U.S. tone in interviews ahead of his election. With the U.S. still trying to recover $2 billion his parents stole from the Philippine government before their ouster in the 1986 People Power Revolution, Marcos rejected an international tribunal’s decision in favor of the Philippines against China’s seizure of atolls in the South China Sea, saying he preferred to negotiate a settlement directly with China instead. Fears were that he was going to maintain the pro-China tilt of his predecessor and ally, Rodrigo Duterte.

But Marcos appears to have done a complete about-face since. Earlier this month, he met with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in Manila and agreed to expand the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement between the Philippines and the United States to give U.S. forces access to four more Philippine bases than the five originally granted under the agreement. He then traveled to Tokyo to give Japan’s military similar rights for humanitarian and disaster-relief missions.

Now, Manila is discussing conducting joint patrols of the South China Sea with both the U.S. and Australian navies. That after Manila said a Chinese coast guard vessel coordinating several maritime militia vessels used a bright green laser to temporarily blind Philippine forces trying to resupply an outpost on a disputed shoal.

But Marcos’ break with Duterte’s pro-China policies isn’t as much of a break as the continuation of a reversal begun by Duterte in 2021 when he realized that no amount of footsies would make Beijing play nice in the South China Sea. Beijing never fulfilled his desire for joint oil exploration deals or for belt-and-road investments in the Philippines. And it only became more aggressive about harassing Philippine fishing boats and coast guard vessels operating around disputed atolls.

Before he left office, Duterte’s own conversion was already well underway. He backtracked on a threat to cancel the Visiting Forces Agreement with the U.S., fully endorsed the AUKUS security pact between Australia, Britain, and the United States, revived the Philippines–United States Bilateral Strategic Dialogue and expanded joint military exercises. He had already also moved to un-freeze the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement he froze in after taking office in 2016.

Now, like Gen. Douglas MacArthur once famously promised, U.S. forces are returning. While media reports have said foreign bases are forbidden under the country’s post-Marcos Constitution, that isn’t so: foreign bases can be allowed, but only with a treaty approved by two-thirds of the Philippine Senate. Manila’s treaty with the U.S. for bases was revoked in 1991, resulting in the closure of U.S. bases at Clark and Subic Bay. So far, however, the U.S. doesn’t appear to want to reopen bases in the Philippines, having since adopted a “places, not bases” strategy to create re-supply outposts that are bases in all but names, such as the largely permanent U.S. naval and air force presence in Singapore.

Nevertheless, the Philippines’ participation in the U.S. Pacific alliance removes concerns that it might become a gap in the archipelagic straitjacket of allies hemming China in and poised to respond to any attempt to reunite Taiwan by force.

Now, the U.S. needs to worry about South Africa, which is this week conducting naval exercises with both China and Russia. Oddly, given the fact that it is prosecuting a war on its border, Russia has sent its flagship frigate to participate in the exercises. The Admiral Gorshkov is reportedly armed with new Zircon, hypersonic cruise missiles.