Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may already be underway; Western politicians keep tiptoeing away from the pandemic

(Originally published Feb. 14 in “What in the World“) Russia may have already begun the kind of behind-the-lines kind of sabotage, from high-tech cyberattacks to low-tech bomb threats, would presage the full-scale invasion the U.S. warns is imminent. U.S. President Joe Biden has promised Kyiv “swift and decisive” action if and when Russia does invade, though he has said he won’t send troops into Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has now amassed 130,000 troops around Ukraine, still not enough to occupy the country, according to the U.S. But a full occupation may have never been Putin’s goal. Kremlinologists say Putin’s goal may instead be to merely destabilize Ukraine and thwart its efforts to join NATO. Some Ukrainians say the crisis created by the threat of invasion has already done that, as airlines cancel flights to and over Ukraine and nations withdraw diplomats and other personnel.

As the U.S. braces for Russia to invade, it’s resorting to shuttle diplomacy to shore up its Pacific theater against the latest string of missile tests by North Korea. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met in Hawaii with his counterparts from Japan and South Korea. He’s undoubtedly also reassuring America’s Asian allies that U.S. behavior toward a superpower menacing a smaller neighbor in Europe isn’t a template for its resolve against a superpower menacing a smaller neighbor in Asia.

Indeed, Washington seems intent on reassuring allies in Asia that it hasn’t forgotten its focus on containing China’s regional ambitions. Blinken’s Hawaii talks are at the tail-end of a tour of the Pacific Rim that also took him to Australia and Fiji.

The World Health Organization’s chief scientist is reminding us that the pandemic isn’t over and that more variants are likely coming our way. The rate of new infections may be falling, but remains roughly five times the level seen for most of the pandemic. Covid continues to kill roughly 10,000 people every day. Vaccines offer temporary protection from severe illness, but don’t prevent infection, each one of which provides the virus a new opportunity to mutate into something more infectious, like the Omicron strain, or more severe, like the Delta strain that preceded it.

Politicians facing elections are nonetheless caving into pressure to lift restrictions from constituents exhausted by two years of half-hearted and largely ineffectual efforts to quell transmission rates. But professionals who know better are pushing back. California’s teachers union, for example, is resisting moves to lift mask mandates in the state’s schools.