With early studies fueling premature optimism, the new strain’s greatest weapon is making the world forget about deadly Delta

(Originally published Dec. 8 in “What in the World“) As Omicron sweeps the planet (57 countries and counting), one of its most dangerous effects appears to be a brain fog whose symptoms include unjustified optimism about the Covid pandemic. This despite the fact that there isn’t much evidence we should be optimistic and plenty that we shouldn’t. The latest Omicron-induced appraisal, unsubstantiated yet somehow reasonable, is this: Vaccines don’t defend very well against Omicron, but may still prevent severe illness, which Omicron doesn’t appear to cause anyway.

With very little scientific evidence at hand, but plenty of the empirical kind, White House chief medical advisor Anthony Fauci has observed that the Omicron variant of Covid-19 spreading rapidly around the world doesn’t yet seem as severe a pathogen as the Delta strain of the virus, which is also still spreading.

This may be cold comfort, considering we’re still losing to Delta. But it’s very good news if Omicron turns out to be so much more infectious than Delta that it gradually supplants it as the prevailing strain. It means we may finally have a version of Covid that really is “just like the flu.”

Unfortunately, the only real evidence we have that this might be true is that Omicron’s rapid spread still hasn’t produced the kind of spike in hospitalizations and deaths we saw when Delta emerged last spring. The World Heath Organization warns that it’s too early and we should expect more to come. The only scientific study yet available is data from South African hospitals on 166 patients that presented at hospitals with Omicron over a two-week period. That study found that most didn’t need oxygen or suffer much respiratory stress. Indeed, most had been hospitalized not because of Covid, but because of other things.

So, as the study concludes, the best we can do is be cautiously optimistic that Omicron replaces Delta and leaves us less vulnerable to hopsitalization and death. Alternatively, Omicron could turn out to be as much of a damp squib as Mu has been since we first wrote about it back in September. Mu, like Alpha, was kicked out of the nest by Delta.

Meanwhile, The New York Times, reacting to another very early study from South Africa that found the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine only about 1/40th as effective against Omicron its predecessors, concluded hopefully in its headline that the “Pfizer vaccine gives some protection against Omicron.” Yes, some. Very little. The study was based on blood samples from only 12 Omicron patients. The study’s authors, at the Africa Health Research Institute, went on to hypothesize that vaccines may prevent Omicron patients from severe illness—despite that early study that Omicron doesn’t cause severe illness—and that booster shots would improve that effectiveness. That deduction was corroborated Tuesday by BioNTech co-founder Ugur Sahin.

Well, yeah. But to what? 1/20th the effectiveness they have against Delta? Excuse me if I don’t pop the champagne.

Our best hope is word from vaccine makers that they’ll be able to tweak vaccines for Omicron within three months. That means we could start seeing inoculations against Omicron by April, with more widespread inoculations before next winter.

Omicron’s second deadly symptom is apathy: polls show that Americans are just too tired of the pandemic to worry much about Omicron and resume precautions against it—or the Delta strain still regaining ground in the United States.

Indeed, Omicron’s deadliest symptom so far is that it has completely distracted people from Delta. We need to keep worrying about Delta, which is ravaging even vaccinated populations as it proves only partially susceptible to vaccines and vaccinated people’s immunity fades as people increase gathering due to colder weather and the Holidays.

In the meantime, vaccines and boosters shots remain de rigeur; even Santa Claus has had a booster. More European nations are approving vaccines for children from 5 to 12, joining the U.S. inoculating the population cohort with the highest Covid infection rate that has been instrumental in maintaining the virus and transmitting it to unvaccinated adults and vaccinated adults as their immunity wanes over time. Vaccinating kids won’t eliminate them as carriers; with Delta, it’s still only slightly better than a coin-toss as to whether a vaccinated individual gets infected, even if they’re unlikely then to develop symptoms. That makes them even more dangerous as carriers, just as children have been, since they’re unlikely to get sick from Covid even if unvaccinated. But it will cut the likelihood of them carrying the virus in half.

Eventually, whether or not you’re fully vaccinated won’t depend on just whether you’ve received an initial vaccination, but how recently you’ve received an inoculation, including a booster shot. In other words, vaccination will have an expiry date, and so will our ability to travel quarantine-free, or pass requirements for entering bars and restaurants, etc.

For the Holiday Season, moreover, it’s important to realize that until Omicron is regarded by officialdom as harmless, infection is tantamount to hospitalization. If you test positive, you won’t be getting on any airplanes.