Biden gives Ukraine go-ahead to fire long-range missiles into Russia

(Originally published Nov. 18 in “What in the World“) Lame-duck U.S. President Joe Biden relented on one of his last remaining restraints on Ukraine’s use of U.S. weaponry: he will now let it fire long-range U.S. missiles at targets inside Russia.

Ukraine and America’s Western allies have lobbied Biden for months to give permission to use U.S.-supplied Atacms against Russian airbases and missile launch sites launching attacks on Ukrainian cities. But Biden’s volte-face was made to allow Kyiv to defend troops it sent to invade the Russian province of Kursk, a surprise attack it launched without telling Washington in what analysts conjectured was a failed attempt to draw Russian forces away from the front lines in Ukraine and perhaps win a stronger negotiating position in ceasefire talks. Ukraine had another aim, though, and it has paid off….

On its face, the Kursk incursion has been a failure: it merely drew Ukrainian troops away from defending their own front lines and prompted Russian President Vladimir Putin to turn to North Korea for missiles and launchers, artillery, and at least 10,000 troops from North Korea, apparently in return for giving the hermetic dictatorship the technology it needs to perfect its ambition of being able to launch ICBMs into the continental United States.

Biden seemed on the verge of relenting in mid-September, to the point that Moscow claimed he already had and that, if he did, it would mean open and direct war between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Russia’s warning, with its veiled warning of a nuclear attack, helped dissuade Biden. So did the Pentagon’s realization that, after firing many of its Atacms against Russian forces behind the lines and in Crimea, there weren’t many left to lob into Russia itself. And the debate had run so long in the meantime that Russia had pulled its most vulnerable targets out of range of the Atacms.

But as noted in this space many times, Biden’s measured aid to Ukraine meant never giving it what it wanted to turn the tide, but also ensuring it had just enough not to lose. For Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, desperate to save his nation, knocking down Biden’s restrictions is a merely matter of provoking Russia into giving Washington a pretext for escalation.

Using its own, homemade, long-range drones to destroy Russian early warning radar systems earned a rebuke from the Pentagon, for example, but succeeded in winning Patriot anti-missile batteries. Those Patriots are undoubtedly proving invaluable as Ukraine wards off a new Russian barrage of missiles and drones launched Sunday, the biggest in months.

Ultimately, however, it was Moscow’s use of North Korean missiles that prompted Biden to start giving Ukraine Atacms for domestic use. Similarly, it was reportedly Moscow’s deployment of North Korean troops in Kursk that convinced Biden to let Ukraine fire the Atacms into Russia.

But the election result certainly played a role in changing Biden’s mind, too. After all, if Putin now makes good on his threat, it will be incoming President Donald Trump’s problem now. Perhaps the knowledge that a friendlier President will be in the White House will keep Putin’s finger off the nuclear button. Or perhaps Biden calculated that letting Zelensky escalate the U.S. into a war inside Russia would force Trump to abandon any plan he had to withdraw U.S. support from Ukraine. Withdrawing in the face of Russian retaliation will make Trump look weak. Two Republican Congressional hawks are already lambasting Biden for having “slow-walked” his Atacm permission.

Presumably, Biden’s reversal will also let Ukraine use British and European long-range, Storm Shadow cruise missiles against Russia, too. Biden was able to put his thumb on their use because the Storm Shadows use U.S.-supplied parts.

While Atacms are getting all the attention, Ukraine and its allies have been facing a dire shortage of more hum-drum, old-school artillery, especially 155mm artillery shells. As the two sides wore down global supplies, Russia turned to North Korea for shells and launchers. BAE Systems is building a new factory for guns for Ukraine to fire: after winning a $50 million contract for M777 howitzers from the U.S. Army earlier this year, BAE is building a 25 million British pound ($32 million) M777 factory in Sheffield, England.

Israel, meanwhile, launched airstrikes in central Beirut against the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia. Israeli airstrikes in northern Gaza, meanwhile, killed more than 30 people.