Tone-deaf political stunt undercuts Biden’s talks with China and raises risks of war to score points at home.

(Originally published Aug. 3 in “What in the World“) U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi landed in Taipei, reportedly aboard a U.S. Air Force jet, to strenuous objections by Beijing. While the White House tried to dissuade her and both The Washington Post and The New York Times’ Tom Friedman explained why her visit, though bold and in support of noble values, is reckless and unwise, the fact that she did so at the head of a Congressional delegation aboard a U.S. military aircraft will undoubtedly support China’s view that she represents a hardening U.S. position against China and in favor of Taiwan’s independence.

The fact that China’s military didn’t use the approach of a U.S. military aircraft to intercept a plane whose flight path from Kuala Lumpur to Taipei was publicly available to anyone following FlightRadar24 is a heartening sign. But Beijing has responded with a show of aerial force over the Taiwan Strait and announced live-fire drills in areas overlapping Taiwan’s coastal waters. Taiwan’s government also suffered a series of cyberattacks before Pelosi landed, the very kind Ukraine experienced before the Russian invasion. Even if China limits itself to an angry show of force, the signal of support Pelosi is sending Taiwan will likely push China even further toward Russian President Vladimir Putin and his call for a global campaign against “evil America.”

Pelosi’s visit is already being hailed by her Republican adversaries in Congress and by other China baiters like The Times’ token conservative Bret Stephens, who argues that she has stood up to a bully. But if Pelosi really wanted to thumb her nose at Beijing, she should have ensured her plane flew directly over the South China Sea from Kuala Lumpur and up the Taiwan Strait to Taipei. Instead, she tacitly recognized China’s claims to both by detouring across Indonesia and around the Philippines to slip into Taipei from the East. If Pelosi feels so strongly about risking war in Asia to defend democracy, she should be willing to take the risk of becoming personally involved.

But the question is not whether Pelosi or other U.S. politicians have the right to visit Taiwan and express their support for its democracy and defense. It’s about what is gained or lost by her visiting right now. Pelosi originally intended to visit in April, two months after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but had to postpone because she caught Covid-19. Instead, she arrives in Taipei just three months before China’s 20th annual party congress, which will determine the next head of the party and, by extension, the next president.

Pelosi doesn’t dictate or determine American foreign policy, even if she represents what China will correctly interpret as an increasingly popular hardline position among American politicians on both sides of the aisle. But her visit doesn’t change American policy nor intensify its dedication and commitment to Taiwan’s defense against potential attack. Her President, Joe Biden, already expressed that commitment with unprecedented clarity back in May. China knows what the risks of military action against Taiwan are without Pelosi saying so in Taipei: the U.S.S. Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier group is in the Philippine Sea this week making that risk loud and clear.

So having the House Speaker pop up in Taiwan achieves nothing in terms of firming America’s commitment or dissuading China from invasion. On the contrary, it can only convince hardliners in Beijing that the opportunity to reunify Taiwan with the Mainland may be slipping away.

Pelosi’s visit thus achieves nothing. But it loses a lot. It pushes farther away any hope of rapprochement with Beijing, something Biden was apparently trying to achieve in his long phone call with China’s President Xi Jinping last week. That’s important because China could be an important ally against Russia. At the very least, it’s vital that the U.S. does not push China into open military support of Russia. But whatever nuance Biden’s Administration may have accomplished with China risks being swept away by political stunts like Pelosi’s.

Pundits and politicians who like to think foreign policy can be conducted in black and white will score Pelosi’s stunt as a victory for democracy. But Pelosi’s visit hasn’t prevented an invasion. It’s likely to have increased the odds of one.

So why now? Typical for an American politician, Pelosi’s eye may not have been on China’s political calendar, but on her own. Pelosi is up for re-election on Nov. 8.