Washington deploys Dr. Jill to Ukraine amid signs of imminent escalation and as tensions spread in Asia

(Originally published May 9 in “What in the World“) The United States and its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization used the anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany to shuffle even closer to what Russian President Vladimir Putin may label “direct intervention” in the war in Ukraine.

Over the weekend, the U.S. deployed perhaps its most devastating weapon yet: Jill Biden. The First Lady’s surprise visit across the border of Slovakia into Ukraine was, of course, intended to send a message of support to the Ukrainian people. Since Dr. Biden isn’t an elected official, but the wife of the President, her arrival into an active war zone was also a clear message to the American public of just how far their leader is prepared to go.

This war is personal—and not just because the U.S. and its allies have been targeting Putin’s personal assets along with those of his family. Washington has now confirmed that the U.S. provided the intelligence that in April enabled Ukrainian forces to target and kill Russian generals and to sink the Russian navy’s flagship, the missile cruiser Moskva.

Moscow has already launched strikes against the Ukrainian railways transporting weapons from the U.S. and NATO across Ukraine. Western officials worry those attacks could easily stray across Ukraine’s borders into NATO territory, triggering a wider conflict. There also concerns that Putin may use Russia’s May 9 Victory Day, which celebrates the defeat of Nazi Germany, to escalate the war and even deploy chemical weapons.

At best, the war is settling into the kind of long and deadly battle of attrition that will require ever-more Western weapons to replace those expended or destroyed in holding Russia at bay. Production of Javelin anti-tank missiles, for example, is set to double. The same defense contractor, Lockheed Martin, has developed a hypersonic missile for the U.S. Air Force and Navy to match Russia’s capabilities.

If the war drags on, Ukraine’s destruction is almost guaranteed. Hope for Ukrainian victory seem tragically far-fetched, as Putin appears unwilling to accept anything less than the annexation of the eastern Donbas and a land bridge to Crimea. Greater U.S. signs of commitment to Russian defeat will only antagonize and embolden Putin and justify escalation, meaning the war becomes more dangerous the longer it drags on. The director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, William Burns, said over the weekend that the war was at least as dangerous and likely becoming more dangerous, because Putin believes he can’t afford to lose in Ukraine and will therefore keep doubling down.

Events in Ukraine are also inflaming tensions in Asia. Washington and its allies in Asia are convinced Beijing may try something similar in Taiwan, which both Beijing and Washington agree is part of China, but which China calls a “renegade province” Washington has committed to defend against forced reunification. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warned last week during a visit to London that standing firm to defend Ukraine was key to deterring China in Taiwan.

Washington is already using the lessons of Ukraine’s defense to turn Taiwan into a “porcupine” that will be harder for China’s much larger and more advanced military to conquer. It has been delaying sales to Taiwan of heavier equipment like big helicopters and tanks, instead encouraging it to buy anti-ship and anti-tank missiles. But many of Taiwan’s existing orders for such equipment have been delayed as the U.S. rushes to supply Ukraine.

North Korea also continues to use the situation to rattle its sabers and shore up its military capability. The hermit dictatorship last week launched the latest in more than a dozen missile tests, lobbing a ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan just days before South Korea’s newly elected hardliner, Yoon Suk-yeol, takes office as president. Then, over the weekend, it launched what appeared to be a ballistic missile from a submarine.