Russia and Israel launch fresh offensives in Ukraine and Gaza
(Originally published May 13 in “What in the World“) After a wave of missile and drone attacks against Ukraine’s power infrastructure, Russia appears to have launched its spring offensive in the eastern part of Ukraine.
Over the weekend, Russian troops launched a new push in northeastern Kharkiv province, forcing Ukrainian forces still short of ammunition into retreat and seizing territory faster than at any time since the initial invasion.
The new attacks follow a wave of missiles and drones strikes last week against Ukraine’s power grid and confirm predictions by the No. 2 at Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, Maj.-Gen. Vadym Skibitsky, that an offensive to clinch the “liberation” of the eastern Donbas region loomed and that newly revived U.S. arms shipments wouldn’t arrive in time to help.
Attacks against Ukraine’s infrastructure have become a regular feature of the war since Russia’s invasion more than two years ago. But last week’s barrage now appears to have been a prelude to the latest offensive. In Skibitsky’s analysis, Russia at this point is trying to grab as much territory as possible before the two sides are driven by their long stalemate to negotiate an armistice that ends with a divided Ukraine.
Still, one new feature of last week’s aerial assault was that Russia’s defence ministry justified the attacks as retaliation for Ukraine’s own drone attacks against Russia’s oil refineries. Using home-made drones, Ukraine has managed to disrupt more than 15% of Russia’s refining capacity.
It’s such attacks inside Russia that made Western leaders reluctant to give Kyiv long-range missiles. They’ve since relented, with the United Kingdom and other European nations giving Ukraine long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles and the U.S. handing over long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems, or Atacms.
The Ukrainian air force said it had managed to knock down 39 of Russia’s 55 missiles and all but one of its 21 drones.
Israel, meanwhile, launched its own renewed offensive into northern Gaza after an aerial bombardment there. The shift north seemed to both deflect fears of an imminent attack on the southern city of Rafah, where most civilians have fled, and yet also confirm criticism that the war had failed to uproot Hamas despite killing at least 35,000 Palestinians to avenge the Oct. 7 attack in southern Israel that killed 1,200 Israelis.