Putin courts N. Korea, Vietnam as Beijing and Manila go mano a mano at sea

(Originally published June 20 in “What in the World“) Echoing the one signed in Italy recently between the U.S. and Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s supreme leader Kim Jong Un on Wednesday signed a mutual defense treaty.

The agreement cements a shift by Moscow away from cooperating with the West in trying to isolate North Korea and stall its efforts to develop a nuclear arsenal. Instead, Russia has turned to Pyongyang to resupply it with artillery and missiles for the war in Ukraine in return for technological assistance on developing more effective nuclear weapons.

While the agreement might seem to cement what Washington has dubbed an axis between China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, Beijing has no active military engagement with North Korea despite China being the hermetic nation’s largest trading partner. But China does have a defense treaty with North Korea. Given China’s refusal to join the West in opposing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or to help counter Iran-backed Houthi rebels harassing commercial shipping in the Red Sea, growing confrontation with the United States and its allies may by necessity drive its rhetorical alliance with both Moscow and Pyongyang to a more tangible level.

Putin left Pyongyang Thursday and flew to Hanoi for a state visit to Vietnam that includes a meeting with Vietnamese President To Lam, who was elected only last month after his predecessor resigned amid a sweeping corruption scandal. A longtime Russian ally and arms customer, Vietnam has also not condemned the invasion of Ukraine. But Vietnam has in more recent years cultivated diplomatic relations with both its former enemies China and the U.S. amid a rising rivalry with China over control of atolls in the South China Sea.

Tensions continue to rise in that area as China and the Philippines spar over atolls there off the Philippine coast. Earlier this week, a Philippine Navy sailor was reportedly injured severely during a clash between a Chinese vessel and a Philippine supply ship trying to reach a besieged garrison on Second Thomas Shoal.

Chinese state media said the Philippine vessel ignored multiple stern warnings and behaved dangerously. The Philippines accused Chinese naval, coast guard, and militia vessels of illegal and aggressive actions that included ramming, puncturing the hulls of several smaller Philippine boats, grappling between personnel of both sides, and China seizing Philippine weapons.

It isn’t the first confrontation over Second Thomas Shoal. Ships from the two nations collided last October as well, and the repeated clash highlights Beijing’s expanding military presence in the South China Sea, which China claims almost in its entirety in violation of international rulings.

To reinforce its claim, China has been patrolling the area using naval vessels bearing coast guard liveries, harassing Philippine resupply ships using water cannons and even laser pointers. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has been pushing back more forcefully against Chinese encroachment, renewing and strengthening Manila’s alliance with the United States and expanding U.S. military access to Philippines bases.

A Chinese amphibious assault ship has this month been seen operating near the contested shoals. An unidentified People’s Liberation Army Navy Type 075-class ship, capable of supporting 900-1200 troops along with amphibious assault vehicles and helicopters, was spotted June 12 off Sabina Shoal, just 72 nautical miles northwest of the Philippine island of Palawan.

The standoff at Sabina Shoal began in April when the Philippine Coast Guard anchored a ship there to prevent Chinese attempts at reclamation, which China has used to then build bases on other atolls. China in May flooded the area with 34 vessels from the People’s Liberation Army Navy, China Coast Guard, and Maritime Militia.