Firebrands from Tehran to Taipei pose an increasing threat to Pax Americana

(Originally published Jan. 18 in “What in the World“) U.S. forces in the Red Sea on Wednesday launched a fourth attack against Houthi rebels in Yemen.

The attack struck more than a dozen targets after the a rebel missile struck a U.S.-owned cargo ship in the Gulf of Aden. Both sides have vowed to continue their attacks. The Houthis have vowed to keep attacking shipping connected to Israel and the U.S. so long as Israel presses its war against Gaza. The U.S. has vowed to keep hitting the Houthis if they do.

The new concern is what the ramifications of Iran’s missile attacks Monday against targets in Syria, Iraq and Pakistan may have. The attacks signaled a greater willingness by Tehran to become directly involved in the regional conflict, instead of merely providing weapons, training, funds, intelligence and advice. “We are a missile power in the world,” warned Iranian defense minister, Mohammad Reza Ashtiani. Another question is whether Pakistan might retaliate and be drawn into the conflict. Pakistan said it “reserves the right to respond.”

As the war threatens to creep eastward into a new and less convenient time zone, North Korea analysts worry that Kim Jong-un could soon open a new front in Asia. On Tuesday, Kim declared South Korea his nation’s primary enemy, discarding a longstanding goal of peaceful reunification. The development added urgency to a warning by long-time Pyongyang watchers Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker that Kim has “made a strategic decision to go to war.”

The Wall Street Journal, quoting unnamed U.S. officials, says Washington is worried that Taiwan’s newly elected president, Lai Ching-te, is more likely than his predecessor to provoke Beijing and draw the U.S. into a conflict to defend Taiwan. Lai was vice president to outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen, and a fellow member of the Democratic Progressive Party. But he has made statements that the Journal speculates suggest he could push—not maybe as far as declaring independence—but for something closer to diplomatic recognition from Washington.