The Solomon Islands, Taiwan and Ukraine are positioned to determine the future of Great Power relations—and conflict

(Originally published Sept. 1 in “What in the World“) The Solomon Islands is now refusing visits by naval vessels from the U.S. and possibly other Western navies after sealing a security agreement with China that sparked objections from Western governments.

Earlier this month, Honiara turned down a request for a refueling stop by a U.S. Coast Guard vessel patrolling the South Pacific for illegal fishing. The Solomons also reportedly rejected a requested port call by a British naval vessel. Honiara told the U.S. Embassy there it is turning away all naval vessels. But it isn’t yet clear whether it will also turn away China naval vessels. A leaked draft of the Pacific island nation’s security agreement allows China’s navy to call on ports there and send in security forces if requested by Honiara.

It’s also unclear why the United States would deploy its littoral forces so far abroad for international anti-poaching efforts, but that’s a different question. China has sent its own coast guard throughout the South China Sea to underline its assertion that it is Chinese territory.

The question now is whether the Solomon Islands intends to shun all navies in a fit of exasperation over the controversy or whether it has become an exclusive Chinese outpost. Though the site of the pivotal World War II Battle of Guadalcanal, the Solomons were largely overlooked by the West for many years until April when the country signed a secret security agreement with Beijing.

A leaked draft of that agreement gave Beijing the ability to use the Solomons as a port-of-call for its naval vessels, extending the reach of its fleet and giving it the ability to hinder Australian maritime access to the Pacific, both commercial and naval. The U.S. has in recent years been building up forces in northern Australia to check China’s growing naval presence in the South China Sea, and Australia served as a key base for U.S. and Allied naval operations against Japan’s ability to defend positions in East Asia during World War II.

Tokyo hasn’t failed to spot the signs of showdown in the Pacific. Japan’s Defense Ministry just put in a request for its largest annual budget ever, $40.4 billion. Though only 1.1% larger than the previous year’s budget, the new outlays are aimed at expanding Japan’s ability to defend against growing threats from China and Russia, using longer-range missiles and more fighter aircraft.

U.S. Brig-Gen. Mark Arnold (no relation) called in an interview for the U.S. and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to allow Ukraine to launch attacks across the border inside Russia to break the supply chains feeding the war in Ukraine. While doing so would undoubtedly prompt an escalation of the war and possibly direct conflict with NATO, Arnold raises a good point: the West has essentially demanded that Ukraine fight an unwinnable war that has already settled into a fatal stalemate. Keeping Russia pinned down in Ukraine may suit the West’s strategic interests, but it likely means the inexorable destruction of Ukraine. If Ukraine is to survive, the West may have to be prepared to go to war directly against Russia, which raises the likelihood of nuclear conflict. The West may thus not be prepared to do what it takes to ensure Ukraine’s survival.

Of course, one way to compel Washington and its allies to go to war directly would be for Ukraine to unilaterally launch missile attacks inside Russian territory. Raids by Ukrainian saboteurs in Crimea came very close. If U.S.-made missiles land inside Russia, it will be difficult for Moscow not to retaliate against NATO, and almost impossible for NATO to then leave Ukraine hanging out to dry.

This logic apparently hasn’t been lost on Taiwan. With U.S. President Joe Biden’s pledge that the U.S. would come to its defense in its hip pocket and $1.1 billion in new military aid awaiting Congressional approval, Taipei has now threatened to strike back against the increasing incursions by China’s military into its territory. It backed up that warning on Tuesday by firing on a drone that ventured over one of the Quemoy islands, which sit just four kilometers off the Chinese city of Xiamen.

Taiwan has little hope of thwarting an actual Chinese attack but sparking a conflict would force Washington’s hand in mounting an overt defense of the self-ruled island.

America’s proxies are now in the driver’s seat.