US warns mounting attacks in Iraq, Syria, Yemen could force it to escalate—more.

(Originally published Jan. 23 in “What in the World“) The White House is warning that, if an American is killed in the growing attacks against U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria by Iran’s proxy militias there, it may have no choice but to broaden the war, perhaps even by attacking Iran directly.

The latest warning, which comes through Biden Administration speaking “privately” with The New York Times, says the White House has worried that it might be forced into a wider war in the region by the attacks. So far, it has mounted only retaliatory air strikes against the militias that it considers restrained and proportionate to the low-level assaults. Those assaults, however, have so far not managed to kill any Americans. That will probably not last.

Iran’s proxies in Iraq are stepping up their attacks. On Saturday, the U.S. military said multiple missiles and rockets were launched at the Ain al-Asad airbase northwest of Baghdad. The latest attacks came only hours after Tehran vowed revenge for an Israeli strike earlier Saturday in Damascus that targeted a building used by advisers from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.

U.S. forces based there have become convenient bait for Iran’s proxies looking for targets of retaliation against Israel. But the United States has also risen to the bait in the Red Sea, responding to attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels by mounting a naval armada trying knock down Houthi drones and missiles while still aloft.

But the Houthis have only rejoiced in the opportunity to take on the U.S. in direct combat, even as the U.S. and United Kingdom expand their air strikes against Houthi launchers, radars and arms depots on the ground in Yemen. While the White House says the attacks are hitting more targets—more than 60 across 30 cities in the latest salvo—but are somehow smaller in magnitude that the first ones to avoid killing so many Houthis that they are provoked into wider attacks. But it’s only a matter of time before that or the obverse finally occurs: the U.S is forced to escalate after an American is killed.

Or a Briton. The U.K. says it will spend 405 million pounds ($515 million) to upgrade the anti-missile systems it’s using to knock down the Houthis missiles. London has issued a contract for new warheads and software to the European consortium MBDA, which is owned by Airbus, BAE Systems and Italy’s Leonardo. MBDA’s Principal Anti-Air Missile System, or Paams. U.S. Navy has been using Raytheon-made missiles to target incoming Houthi missiles. They knocked another down Saturday. But France and the U.K. have been using Paams, The UK Navy calls it Sea Viper. The French Navy calls them Aster missiles.

But it’s North Korean missiles that are now turning heads. Russia has begun deploying missiles from Pyongyang in Ukraine, providing North Korea with valuable advertising for its wares. The missiles are proving so accurate that Pentagon officials worry they are giving Moscow an edge over Kyiv as Ukraine runs short of both artillery shells and air-defense missiles.