US squares off against Caracas as Russia presses fresh offensive in Ukraine

(Originally published May 14 in “What in the World“) As Ukraine continues to slowly deplete its air defense missiles, more Russian missiles are starting to hit their targets.

Ukrainian forces manage to knock down less than half of the incoming Russian missiles and drones, down from roughly 80% a year ago, according to a The New York Times tally of Kyiv’s daily reports. Part of that is because Russia is using weapons hard to shoot down, like the Iskander-M ballistic missile, which releases decoys to distract anti-missile systems, and the supersonic Kh-22 missile.

Russia is also simply launching more and more missiles and drones, overwhelming Ukraine’s anti-missile systems, including old-fashioned anti-aircraft guns, and sophisticated, modern, but very expensive Patriot batteries and National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, or Nasams. But the Russian barrages are also simply depleting Ukraine’s dwindling stockpile of anti-missile ammunition. Washington’s revival of weapons aid will help reverse that.

The latest barrages appear to have been a precursor to a fresh Russian offensive across Ukraine’s northeastern border into Kharkiv province. Theories about now about Moscow’s goal: while one theory is that the offensive is part of a larger effort to clinch the “liberation” of the Russian-speaking Donbas region ahead of possible armistice talks, another is that it is an attempt to create a buffer zone to reduce the number of Ukrainian attacks into Russia’s neighboring Belgorod province.

As U.S. forces position themselves in Eastern Europe against the Russian threat, in the Red Sea and the Arabian Peninsula against Iran, and in the Philippines and in Taiwan (where the U.S. held secret drills last month) against China, Washington has discovered yet another front to deploy its weapons: South America. The Pentagon has deployed the USS George Washington aircraft carrier to fly Navy fighters over Guyana to deter Venezuela from claiming parts of Guyana’s territory.

To respond, Washington in February announced a military aid package to Guyana, allowing it to purchase U.S. military aircraft, drones, helicopters, and radar technology.