Trump threatens to turn Europe over to Putin; Biden orders another hit
(Originally published Feb. 12 in “What in the World“) Trump’s latest taunt to America’s European allies will only intensify their mistrust of Washington—but also might work.
The former president and campaign front-runner, Donald J. Trump, sparked outrage by boasting that he wouldn’t help defend any member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization that didn’t meet its obligation to spend 2% of its GDP on defense. “No I would not protect you,” he said at a rally over the weekend in South Carolina. “In fact I would encourage [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay.”
NATO’s 31 (and still growing!) members are bound by treaty to come to their mutual defense. But NATO members have been concerned that party squabbling has distracted Washington from the fight and that Trump, if re-elected, wouldn’t have the kind of advisers to again talk him out of withdrawing from NATO and pulling U.S. troops out of Europe. NATO is also heeding Trump’s warning and Russia’s growing threat:
After spending a record $259 billion on defense in 2022, European nations likely spent $291 billion on weapons in 2023. But the prospect of Trump’s reelection may force NATO members to go even further, and consider whether they need to replace the U.S. nuclear umbrella with one of their own.
Russia, having fended off Ukraine’s 2023 counter-offensive to hold the eastern provinces and the land bridge to Crimea, has launched another round of winter assaults against civilian infrastructure in Ukrainian cities. Russian troops are also making steady advances in Donetsk, as Ukrainian forces run short of ammunition to stop them. Russia has also been accused of jamming GPS signals in the Baltics and Poland from its enclave Kaliningrad and probing the border of NATO’s newest member, Finland, with a wave of bicycle-riding asylum seekers.
NATO has had to resort to lobbying Republicans and Washington to stop blocking U.S. further military aid to Ukraine, with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg last month even paying a visit to Trump allies at the Heritage Foundation. The Biden Administration rejected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s latest call for peace talks over Ukraine. But would Trump?
Trump may threaten to let Moscow invade Europe, but like most American Presidents he was a big fan of military power once he sat behind the Resolute desk. U.S. military spending rose more than 20% during Trump’s presidency.
U.S. belief in its right to intervene unilaterally beyond its borders is solidly bipartisan. Exhibit A: To prove it’s the good guy and advertise its nation-building credentials, the United States last week conducted an open assassination in Baghdad—without even telling the Iraqi government, much less asking permission.
U.S. Special Operations forces used a drone to strike a vehicle carrying a senior member of Kataib Hezbollah, the group blamed for the drone strike last month against a U.S. base in Jordan that killed three U.S. troops. The Pentagon informed Iraqi officials of the strike shortly after it occurred. Iraq’s head of security pointed out the obvious, saying the strike violated Iraqi sovereignty.
Just in case anyone hoped the revenge killing will help calm tensions in the region or win friends and influence people in a country the U.S. sacrificed more than 4,000 American lives since invading it 21 years ago to oust its ruthless dictator, crowds gathered in Baghdad’s streets afterwards to chant “America is the devil.” Instead, the move is increasing pressure on Iraq’s government to push out the last remaining U.S. troops.
Score one for America’s PR machine. And for military strategy. It’s virtually certain that attacks by Iran-backed militias against remaining U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria will now cease entirely. That’s a joke. Kataib Hezbollah responded to the assassination by saying “this calls for steadfastness on the path of jihad.” Israeli forces have begun air strikes against Rafah, the last southern refuge in Gaza where Palestinian civilians (and, the Israeli military clearly believes, Hamas) have been sheltering.
Believe it or not, Wednesday’s attack was the second such assassination the Biden Administration has executed in the Iraqi capital. In early January, Biden approved a similar drone strike that killed a member of Harakat al Nujaba, another Iran-backed militia blamed for attacking U.S. bases in Syria and Iraq since Israel’s Oct. 27 invasion of Gaza. Since then, there have been at least 40 more attacks on U.S. bases, including the fatal attack on Tower 22 on the Jordanian border with Syria.